Kentucky Derby Angles: Free on post position
Derby Angles features DRF handicappers looking at individual handicapping factors and how they may play out in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Brad FreeApr 30, 2015
Derby Angles features DRF handicappers looking at individual handicapping factors and how they may play out in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Five years removed from what appeared on the outside to be one of the most ignominious and rapid falls from grace in modern American racing history, Ahmed Zayat is back on top.
The images of Victor Espinoza’s 2014 Derby victory aboard California Chrome remain vivid, and the colt’s exploits since then have done little to erase the glow. Now the page has turned, though, and Espinoza is right back in Louisville firmly attached to a second straight Derby favorite.
When the United Arab Emirates Derby was run at Meydan Racecourse on March 28, racing fans on both sides of the Atlantic had the chance to watch it live because it was part of the telecast of the rich Dubai World Cup. Most viewers were impressed by the performance of Mubtaahij, who ran away with the $2 million event by eight lengths.
I came to town with the intention of trying to beat the favorite, but after watching AMERICAN PHAROAH work and train subsequent to that work, it’s hard to side against the smooth-moving 3-year-old, even in such a talented field as the one set to contest this year’s Derby. He has enough natural speed to put himself in perfect striking position from his outside post and perhaps even get the lead if his rider so chooses, and he gives the impression that he’s a cut above the rest of these at his best.
Just like his sire, Big Brown, DORTMUND comes into the Kentucky Derby undefeated, and it is difficult to find any chinks in his armor. While it’s true that the big-framed horse needs to avoid getting stopped in traffic, he has gained valuable seasoning through a number of different situations and has proven capable of making his own luck.
A closer look at the pedigrees of the entrants for the 141st running of the $2 million Kentucky Derby, to be contested Saturday at Churchill Downs.
UPSTART enters with a long list of attributes. He is battle-hardened against the cream of the crop, having placed in the Champagne, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Florida Derby. He is fast, one of just three entrants who earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures three times. Upstart is versatile; he can press the pace or rally from behind. Post 19 is fine. Upstart has run well on four surfaces (Saratoga, Belmont Park, Santa Anita, and Gulfstream Park).
I find it impossible to draw the very fine lines needed to separate American Pharoah from Dortmund and the other top contenders, so I’ll take the one who could be just as good as the two favorites and at a much bigger price.
More so than any other horse race, the Kentucky Derby is handicapped by many based on historical rules. And one of those chief rules, “The Curse of Apollo,” says that MATERIALITY is highly unlikely to win the Derby because no unraced 2-year-old has won the race since, guess who, Apollo in 1882.