Beyer: Deconstructing the UAE Derby figure

When the United Arab Emirates Derby was run at Meydan Racecourse on March 28, racing fans on both sides of the Atlantic had the chance to watch it live because it was part of the telecast of the rich Dubai World Cup. Most viewers were impressed by the performance of Mubtaahij, who ran away with the $2 million event by eight lengths.

That performance established the colt – bred in Ireland, trained by a South African, and owned by a Dubai sheikh – as a bona-fide contender for the Kentucky Derby. Yet he is a mystery to handicappers; the horses he defeated were unknown to most people in the U.S.

To evaluate him, a colleague and I tried to calculate a Beyer Speed Figure for his performance and estimated that Mubtaahij earned a figure of 97 – not nearly good enough to beat the strong field he will face at Churchill Downs.

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This number and conclusion deserve an explanation, which necessarily involves some slightly esoteric calculations. The following is for hard-core handicappers only.

The UAE Derby is contested at 1,900 meters and the World Cup at 2,000 meters, roughly the equivalent of 1 3/16 and 1 1/4 miles. It’s not difficult to compare times at these distances. It should take a good horse like Mubtaahij about 6.7 seconds to cover the final sixteenth of a mile at these long distances.

Mubtaahij won his race in 1:58.30, which would roughly translate into 2:05 at the longer distance.

Prince Bishop won the Dubai World Cup in 2:03.20.

Older horses generally run faster than their 3-year-old counterparts, but this is a significant difference. In the Beyer Speed Figures system, the gap between the two winning performances is 15 points.

The contenders in the UAE Derby had no U.S. form, so it is difficult to guess what figure they were likely to run. But the second, third, and fourth finishers in the Dubai World Cup were well-established American runners. This was the result:

Horse Lengths Beyer Figure

behind winner equivalent

Prince Bishop

California Chrome 2.75 lengths 4 Beyer points

Lea 4 lengths 6 Beyer points

Candy Boy 9.25 lengths 13 Beyer points

(This data indicate that the Dubai-based Prince Bishop ran four points faster than California Chrome, whatever their numbers.)

Randy Moss, the NBC commentator and a member of the team that calculates Beyer Speed Figures, argued persuasively that Prince Bishop’s winning figure should be 112.

His reasoning: California Chrome had earned a 113 in the best race of his career, a 108 in his second-best effort. In Dubai, he had a difficult trip, parked wide on both turns, and surely didn’t run his best number; a 108 would make sense for him. If Prince Bishop got a winning figure of 112 – four points higher than California Chrome – the numbers for the third- and fourth-place finishers would make sense, too. In the U.S., Candy Boy often earned figures around 100; if the winner of the Dubai World Cup had a figure 112, Candy Boy’s would be 99.

Give or take a point or two, the figure of 112 is right for Prince Bishop. And because Mubtaahij was 15 points slower, his winning figure was a 97. And that is why Mubtaahij is unlikely to be draped with roses Saturday.