Byron King's Derby analysis

1. Materiality
2. Dortmund
3. American Pharoah
4. International Star

More so than any other horse race, the Kentucky Derby is handicapped by many based on historical rules. And one of those chief rules, “The Curse of Apollo,” says that MATERIALITY is highly unlikely to win the Derby because no unraced 2-year-old has won the race since, guess who, Apollo in 1882.

But horse racing is an evolving sport, one in which horses are raced less frequently, particularly as 2-year-olds, and to eliminate Materiality, who is unbeaten in three starts, merely because he debuted Jan. 11 and not Dec. 31 is simply too rigid. That is not to say that experience doesn’t matter, but it doesn’t trump all other handicapping criteria.

In nearly every sport, talent is of more significance than historical precedent. And certainly Materiality ranks among the most talented runners in this year’s Kentucky Derby, along with DORTMUND and AMERICAN PHAROAH. And of the three, he is easily the best price at 12-1 on the morning line.

In winning the Florida Derby in his last start, he ran a 110 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest in the Derby field, and defeated a fellow Kentucky Derby contender in Upstart. They battled from the end of the backstretch and into the lane before Materiality pulled away for a 1 1/2-length victory.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

Materiality has trained well since that race and made a good appearance at Churchill Downs. His draw in post 3 isn’t the greatest, perhaps forcing him to be used a little early, but his post isn’t negative enough to dissuade me from supporting him.

Other than being short prices in a 20-horse race, it is difficult to criticize Dortmund or American Pharoah. They are outstanding racehorses and incredible physical specimens. Dortmund is so large that he makes his 3-year-old rivals look like young 2-year-olds, and American Pharoah has a fluid stride with no wasted movement.

No wonder Dortmund is unbeaten in six starts, including the Santa Anita Derby, and American Pharoah is the juvenile champion of 2014 and dominant in two preps this year.

With Dortmund likely being the better price of the two, he rates as the second selection, with morning-line favorite American Pharoah the third pick.

Rounding out my top four is 20-1 outsider INTERNATIONAL STAR, the Louisiana Derby winner who seems the best late runner in the race. His style and an expected hot pace suggest that he has a chance to be a part of the trifecta or superfecta.