Brad Free's Derby analysis

1. Upstart
2. Dortmund
3. American Pharoah
4. Tencendur

UPSTART enters with a long list of attributes. He is battle-hardened against the cream of the crop, having placed in the Champagne, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Florida Derby. He is fast, one of just three entrants who earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures three times. Upstart is versatile; he can press the pace or rally from behind. Post 19 is fine. Upstart has run well on four surfaces (Saratoga, Belmont Park, Santa Anita, and Gulfstream Park).

The only minor hiccup was a recent interruption from a sinus infection that quickly passed. Notwithstanding many traits, Upstart is listed at 15-1. A good horse at a good price, Upstart is qualified to upset from off the pace.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY PPS: Available now

As for DORTMUND, no one wants a dogfight with this dude. The large colt has won all six of his starts, including two photo finishes when things did not go his way. He won a Grade 1 race last fall in his first route, just three weeks after shipping across the country and back. He won a Grade 3 in February after he was headed in the lane. Finally, he cruised by daylight in both recent starts. Like the top choice, Dortmund is seasoned, battle-tested, versatile, and fast (triple-digit Beyers three straight times).

AMERICAN PHAROAH has done everything right, blowing out four graded stakes with triple-digit Beyers. A fast horse who typically sets the pace, he showed a new dimension last out. He raced in second position and then ran away from modest Oaklawn Park foes. In both starts this year against soft competition, American Pharoah started at odds-on. It is unclear how he will respond to a prolonged battle against better company. He runs and trains like a potential star; his odds will reflect his popularity. He might win by avoiding a battle by simply being fastest in the field. He might simply run away from his rivals. Win or lose, he will be forwardly placed. Post 18 is perfect. From there, he has options.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

TENCENDUR caught a fast track for the first time and ran the race of his career when second in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. He will rally at a price.

FROSTED dominated the Wood Memorial last out; can he run two alike?

CARPE DIEM has always been among the leaders of his division; he is stuck down in post 2. MUBTAAHIJ was sharp in Dubai. MATERIALITY won the Florida Derby with a big figure, but being unraced at 2 is a hurdle.

INTERNATIONAL STAR will rally at a price. FIRING LINE finished a head behind Dortmund, twice. EL KABEIR, FAR RIGHT, and WAR STORY will pick them up late.