Mike Welsch's Derby analysis
1. American Pharoah
2. Upstart
3. Dortmund
4. Materiality
I came to town with the intention of trying to beat the favorite, but after watching AMERICAN PHAROAH work and train subsequent to that work, it’s hard to side against the smooth-moving 3-year-old, even in such a talented field as the one set to contest this year’s Derby. He has enough natural speed to put himself in perfect striking position from his outside post and perhaps even get the lead if his rider so chooses, and he gives the impression that he’s a cut above the rest of these at his best.
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UPSTART might be flying under the radar and should offer some value for a horse who was beaten to the wire just once in three Derby preps this winter while facing quality fields and earning big speed figures at Gulfstream Park. He appears to have bounced out of his last two races over demanding tracks and a brief bout with a sinus infection none the worse for wear, judging by the looks of his recent works and high-energy gallops since arriving at Churchill Downs. He might just try to follow American Pharoah throughout from his adjacent post on the extreme outside.
:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays
DORTMUND, like American Pharoah an extremely talented colt who could not be doing better and really seems to be thriving over the local surface, could be his stablemate’s chief rival for Derby glory. MATERIALITY has done nothing wrong in three starts, dug in gamely to turn back Upstart in the Florida Derby, and has continued to train extremely well since that race. He has the physical makeup to beat the Derby jinx that has plagued previous Derby starters who never ran at 2.
FIRING LINE has been eye-catching since arriving locally, continues to improve with every start, and gives the distinct impression that he’s sitting on his best race yet on Derby Day. CARPE DIEM is hard to fault off his two big Derby preps, although he did race out on what appeared to be the best part of the track in the Blue Grass Stakes. A bit of a high-strung colt, he must handle the Derby madness while also poorly drawn near the inside.
DANZIG MOON was no match for Carpe Diem while also riding a track bias in the Blue Grass but has had a couple of great weeks leading up to this race and could be live at a price in the gimmicks. FROSTED turned in a big performance despite getting hung wide around both turns in the Wood Memorial and obviously is much improved since the Fountain of Youth. His chances must be respected off that last effort.