Dave Litfin's Derby analysis

Just like his sire, Big Brown, DORTMUND comes into the Kentucky Derby undefeated, and it is difficult to find any chinks in his armor. While it’s true that the big-framed horse needs to avoid getting stopped in traffic, he has gained valuable seasoning through a number of different situations and has proven capable of making his own luck.

He circled wide to win going away from post 12 over the Churchill Downs strip last fall. Two starts later in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, he showed that he would not be intimidated in a tight spot along the rail. If you send him, as in the Santa Anita Derby, he is not coming back. Physically, he is reminiscent of Point Given, who in retrospect was probably a bit undertrained for the Derby before running the table through a Horse of the Year campaign. No doubt, Bob Baffert learned valuable lessons from that experience.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY PPS: Available now

FIRING LINE has twice run Dortmund to photo finishes, and while they are obviously close in terms of ability, he is going to be a much bigger price. He set a blazing pace and widened at will in the Sunland Park Derby, but prior races and recent workout reports indicate that he is tractable. The savvy veteran Gary Stevens has a lot of raw material to work with here, and you can be sure he has some adjustments in mind for Round 3 with the top choice.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

I was muttering under my breath at the quarter pole of the Fountain of Youth Stakes for not taking the 7-2 on FROSTED and was just as flabbergasted as everyone else when he stopped suddenly. A number of changes took place in the wake of that disappointing performance, including a minor throat procedure and a noticeable uptick in the tempo of his workouts, and the result was a complete rebound to win the Wood Memorial despite racing wide. Draw a line through that Fountain of Youth, and a consistent pattern of improvement emerges on the Beyer Speed Figures.

AMERICAN PHAROAH has certainly been impressive through a four-race win streak, but to read the press clippings and the social-media buzz, one would think this is the second coming of Hindoo, and he figures to be way overbet. His top Beyer of 105 for the Arkansas Derby ranks behind the best figures run by MATERIALITY (110), UPSTART (108) and Dortmund (106), and Frosted (103) is right there in the mix as well. American Pharoah has not faced any serious challenges through the stretch, so how he reacts under fire remains an unknown factor.