Kentucky Derby Angles: Free on post position

Derby Angles features DRF handicappers looking at individual handicapping factors and how they may play out in this year’s Kentucky Derby. The six-part series begins with Dan Illman’s take on pedigree and continues with Dick Jerardi on Beyer Speed Figure Patterns, Dave Litfin’s look at “trips,” Brad Free’s examination of post position, Kenny Peck’s pace projection, and Marcus Hersh on winning profiles and betting value.

(This updated version reflects the scratch of Stanford (11); also-eligible Frammento (21) draws into the field.)

Kentucky Derby post position matters more for some than others.

Morning-line favorite American Pharoah drew perfectly. He will wear No. 18; he will break from post 17 after the scratch of Stanford. A front-runner, American Pharoah can either set or press the pace while in the clear.

For the fast American Pharoah, an outside post is ideal draw even if he would be the first Derby winner to break from post 17 since Churchill Downs began using a starting gate in 1930.

For second choice Dortmund, post 8 is neither good nor bad. He is outside two pace rivals, but inside at least three others. Dortmund is versatile, he can adapt. The post is not particularly favorable, nor particularly bad. He’ll be in the mix early; that is how he runs.

However, options are severely limited for stablemates Carpe Diem and Materiality. From posts 2 and 3, respectively, their hands are forced. Carpe Diem is versatile, but he must commit early to avoid being shuffled. Materiality is a front-runner with only one option – he has to go. Inside posts and strategy of that pair could speed up the tempo of the race.

Here’s a look at the impact of post position for each of the 20 runners in the body of the Derby, from the rail out.

1-OCHO OCHO OCHO is probably not good enough. The rail won’t get him beat. Although he has run well setting the pace and rallying from behind, he is more likely to employ an off-pace strategy. The most recent Derby winner from the rail was Ferdinand in 1986. The most recent in-the-money finish from the rail was Risen Star, third in 1988.

2-CARPE DIEM drew poorly. It is unfortunate; his credentials are solid. But when the outside horses gravitate toward the rail, Carpe Diem must already have established position. It’ll take energy to get there. The Derby shuffle-back is extreme; Carpe Diem must try to avoid it. It looks like a tough post from which to work out a trip. The 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed was the most recent post-2 Derby winner.

3-MATERIALITY also drew poorly, with fewer options. He has been positioned first or second in all three starts. That won’t change.
Materiality must bust from the gate, take pressure from the speed to his outside, shake off rivals, and somehow find stamina for a mile and a quarter. Along with the “no-starts-at-2” dilemma, things just got a lot tougher for Materiality. Real Quiet in 1998 was the most-recent post-3 Derby winner.

4-TENCENDUR will rally from the back half; post is less critical for closers. Tencendur is expected to drop into the space vacated by the speed horses in post 2-3, save ground, and roll late. Super Saver in 2010 was the most recent Derby winner from post 4.

5-DANZIG MOON is another expected to rally from the back half. This post is neither a benefit nor hindrance for a deep closer. Who was the most-recent post-5 Derby winner? It was one year ago, California Chrome with a pressing style opposite that of Danzig Moon. Post 5 has produced the second-highest Derby win rate (10.6 percent).

6-MUBTAAHIJ is fine from this post. He could get a trip similar to the trip he employed to crush the UAE Derby – saving ground in the second flight. He is drawn between two deep closers. One can envision Mubtaahij dropping over and tucking inside, behind Materiality and other speed. Sea Hero in 1993 was the most-recent post-6 Derby winner.

7-EL KABEIR is another that will rally from the back. Calvin Borel rides. Chances are he will drop to the rail, near the back, then try to work forward. This post is neither good nor bad for the closer. Street Sense (Borel up in 2007) was the most recent Derby winner from post 7.

8-DORTMUND will be involved early, but he is multi-dimensional. From this post, the key is how much early pressure Dortmund gets from the outside speed (Firing Line, Stanford, and American Pharoah). Ideally, Dortmund would be farther outside. A lot can happen at the break in a big field. Whether a bettor likes Dortmund or not, this post is no reason to change opinion. Mine That Bird won the 2009 Derby from post 8.

9- BOLO is better on turf. He rallied wide finishing third in two dirt races in California, but in this big field he will eat dirt. Whether he had drawn inside, outside or the middle, Bolo would be a shock. Riva Ridge in 1972 was the most recent post-9 Derby winner.

10-FIRING LINE drew perfectly. He will be among the last to load (simultaneous load posts 1-10, and 11-20). Firing Line is a presser, with only two key speed horses outside. Bettors that like Firing Line can breathe easy. Post is not likely to get him beat. Giacomo in 2005 was the most-recent Derby winner from post 10, which has produced the highest Derby win rate (11.5 percent).

11-STANFORD has been scratched. All the starters to his outside move in one stall.

12-INTERNATIONAL STAR will break from post 11. He is a horse for which post matters little. He will drop out early and roll late. He can weave through traffic, he is battle-tested in compromising circumstances, and he will finish. The most recent Derby winner from post 12 was Canonero II in 1971.

13-ITSAKNOCKOUT is sandwiched between two deep closers, so the post is fine for a colt expected to be positioned somewhere in the middle of the field. Not good, not bad. The most recent Derby winner from post 13 was Smarty Jones in 2004.

14-KEEN ICE was the last to make it into the field, and he will be the last loaded into the 14-stall main gate. Keen Ice has no speed, and could be last early. Post rarely matters for closers. Post 14 has not won the Derby since Carry Back in 1961. It’s a fluke stat.

15-FROSTED should be okay from post 15, which is the “inside post” of the auxiliary gate. There is open space between the two gates, so his rider must keep him on a straight path leaving the gate. With closers inside and outside, there is reduced risk of bumping. For contender Frosted, post seems a non-factor. Orb won the 2013 Derby from post 15.

16-WAR STORY is a deep closer not likely to be affected by post. He will not be near the front; he will rally late. Animal Kingdom in 2011 was the most-recent Derby winner from post 16.

17-MR Z drew well. He can be forwardly placed, but the outside gives him the option of taking back. While one can debate whether Mr. Z is a legit contender, the draw actually boosts his chances. Options are open; he has only one speed horse to his outside. Here’s a weird stat – post 17 has not produced a Kentucky Derby since Churchill Downs began using a starting gate in 1930. The streak is 0 for 36. It’s a statistical aberration, probably.

18-AMERICAN PHAROAH is the favorite; his chances increased when he drew this post. With no rival pressing from the outside, American Pharoah can race to the lead or push the pace while in the clear. Yes, there is a risk of ground loss. But there is virtually no risk of traffic. The post is not likely to get the favorite beat. It’s actually the ideal draw. Gato Del Sol in 1982 was the most recent
post-18 Derby winner.

19-UPSTART is another key contender that drew well. The outside is fine. Three of the last four Derby winners started from the auxiliary gate. Upstart has speed if necessary, but is expected to allow the front-runners inside to race ahead while he tucks in. The 2012 Derby winner I’ll Have Another broke from post 19.

20-FAR RIGHT is a deep closer that will be drop out and rally. Post is not a factor except for one possibly beneficial aspect. Far Right will be one of the last to load; he will not be in the gate very long. Big Brown in 2008 is the only horse to win the Derby from post 20.

21-FRAMMENTO will break from post 20. Post is not a factor. He does not belong in the field. He has not finished close in three graded stakes. He will try to pick up some pieces. His deficiency in ability is the challenge. Big Brown in 2008 is the only horse to win the Derby from post 20.