Closing longshots key for big Derby payouts
How do you find a Kentucky Derby longshot worth tossing onto tickets?
Marcus HershApr 30, 2015
How do you find a Kentucky Derby longshot worth tossing onto tickets?
Summon the Spirit (#6, ML 6-1) takes on four in Thursday’s sixth race at Belmont, a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race. Since Jan. 1, 2014, trainer Jimmy Jerkens is winning at a 28 percent clip in route races, for a return on investment of $3.20.
DRF handicapper Kenny Peck provides insight for a pick four in races 4-7 Friday at Churchill Downs.
While most of the attention will be focused on the later portion of Friday’s Kentucky Oaks card at Churchill Downs, the first pick four opportunity of the day presents itself in the second race and concludes with the fifth.
George’s Main Man (#2, ML 8-1) will return to action in Thursday’s seventh race at Santa Anita, 6 1/2-furlong claimer. It will be his first start since a first-place finish by one length in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race April 9 at Santa Anita. The second- and third-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.
Derby Angles features DRF handicappers looking at individual handicapping factors and how they may play out in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
I came to town with the intention of trying to beat the favorite, but after watching AMERICAN PHAROAH work and train subsequent to that work, it’s hard to side against the smooth-moving 3-year-old, even in such a talented field as the one set to contest this year’s Derby. He has enough natural speed to put himself in perfect striking position from his outside post and perhaps even get the lead if his rider so chooses, and he gives the impression that he’s a cut above the rest of these at his best.
Just like his sire, Big Brown, DORTMUND comes into the Kentucky Derby undefeated, and it is difficult to find any chinks in his armor. While it’s true that the big-framed horse needs to avoid getting stopped in traffic, he has gained valuable seasoning through a number of different situations and has proven capable of making his own luck.
UPSTART enters with a long list of attributes. He is battle-hardened against the cream of the crop, having placed in the Champagne, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Florida Derby. He is fast, one of just three entrants who earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures three times. Upstart is versatile; he can press the pace or rally from behind. Post 19 is fine. Upstart has run well on four surfaces (Saratoga, Belmont Park, Santa Anita, and Gulfstream Park).
More so than any other horse race, the Kentucky Derby is handicapped by many based on historical rules. And one of those chief rules, “The Curse of Apollo,” says that MATERIALITY is highly unlikely to win the Derby because no unraced 2-year-old has won the race since, guess who, Apollo in 1882.