Free: Churchill late pick four for Saturday, May 2
There are 34,560 possible combinations in the late pick four (races 10-13) at Churchill Downs. The sequence includes a Grade 1 on turf, the Kentucky Derby, an N1X route for 3-year-olds, and a maiden sprint.
It’s a 50-cent bet. Let’s try to keep the pick four somewhat affordable.
Race 10, Woodford Reserve Turf Classic
Tough start, lots of questions. The favorite SEEK AGAIN (9) has not raced since November; the second-favorite STEPHANIE’S KITTEN (8) is a mare vs. boys. Nine furlongs is a long way for sharp milers JACK MILTON (7) and GRAND ARCH (12). As for import UMGIYO (3), he is only shipper, and his price is huge at 30-1. It’s a spread race.
Five deep (3, 7, 8, 9, 12): Umgiyo, Jack Milton, Stephanie’s Kitten, Seek Again, Grand Arch
Race 11, Kentucky Derby
There are many reasons to like UPSTART (19), whose odds are likely to be lower than his 15-1 line. DORTMUND (8) never has lost. No knocks on the favorite American Pharoah except his short price.
Two deep (8, 19): Dortmund, Upstart
Race 12, N1X route, 3-year-olds
Also-eligible UNBRIDLED JUAN (13) is the “fastest” but stuck outside for his first route and first against winners. His highly rated maiden win was validated when the second-, fourth-, and ninth-place finishers returned to win. GUAPO MAN (4) also scored a flashy maiden win by 17 lengths. FLASH TRADING (1) improved first-time dirt, while COMFORT (12) drops after a troubled fourth in a graded stakes.
Four deep (1, 4, 12, 13): Flash Trading, Guapo Man, Comfort, Unbridled Juan
Race 13, maiden special weight sprint, 3 and up
First-time starter IMSLOPOKERODRIGUEZ (5) is by a top debut sire (Tale of the Cat gets 17 percent first-out winners); his dam’s two foals that raced both won first out, and trainer Rudy Rodriguez can get rookies ready. He is 15-1. But the favorite is the last-out runner-up BENT ON BOURBON (6), who will be tough to beat if he runs two alike.
Two deep (5, 6): Imslopokerodriguez, Bent On Bourbon
The bet
Pick four, races 10-13
(50-cent wager = $40)
Race 10 (first leg): 3, 7, 8, 9, 12
Race 11 (second leg): 8, 19
Race 12 (third leg): 1, 4, 12, 13
Race 13 (fourth leg): 5, 6