Kentucky Derby Angles: Peck on pace

Derby Angles features DRF handicappers looking at individual handicapping factors and how they may play out in this year’s Kentucky Derby. The six-part series begins with Dan Illman’s take on pedigree and continues with Dick Jerardi on Beyer Speed Figure Patterns, Dave Litfin’s look at “trips,” Brad Free’s examination of post position, Kenny Peck’s pace projection, and Marcus Hersh on winning profiles and betting value.

Daily Racing Form will soon unveil a product that will identify race flows in those instances where extreme pace scenarios played a major factor in a race. Using this tool, players will be able to determine not only those horses who were victimized by a pace scenario due to their running style, but also discover runners who may have been aided by the race flow. Not every race gets a pace rating – some races, as pace handicappers all know, do not have a clear, discernible race flow. Here's a look at how some of the Triple Crown prep races have been assessed as we prepare for Saturday's Kentucky Derby:

International Star earned more points than any other horse on the road to the Kentucky Derby by virtue of his sweep of the three Fair Grounds prep races. But those races were all determined to be favorable to closers. The Lecomte carries a +SPEED label, meaning it was a race flow that was kind to ralliers, while the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby were both determined to be ++SPEED races, which indicates the setups were extremely advantageous for horses coming from off the pace. International Star came from off the pace in all of those races and thus is considered a horse that can be expected to regress. War Story and Keen Ice are also closers exiting those preps, and they, too, are horses who may have seen their form enhanced by the pace dynamics of those races.

On the other hand, Mr. Z is a horse who was close to the lead in the Louisiana Derby, which carries a ++SPEED rating, was also with the pace in the Southwest Stakes back in February. That, too, was a ++ SPEED race, making his effort all the more impressive. The winner, closer Far Right, however, may be a horse to bet against as he not only benefited from the race flow there but also in the Arkansas Derby, which has been labeled a +SPEED race. That makes the effort of American Pharoah, impressive winner of the Arkansas Derby, even more grand.

The Blue Grass Stakes was labeled as a -SPEED, meaning those horses close to the lead (Ocho Ocho Ocho, Carpe Diem) should be downgraded, while stretch-runners (Danzig Moon, Frammento) can be upgraded. The same is true of the Robert B. Lewis, with the speeds (Dortmund) having an edge on those horses trying to come from off the pace (Firing Line). El Kabeir was flattered by the race flow of the Gotham, rated as a ++SPEED race.

Of course, while you want to assess the race flows of the races from which horses are emerging, the pace dynamics of Saturday's race remain paramount. The running styles of key runners in the 2015 Kentucky Derby indicate there will be no shortage of speed in the first leg of the Triple Crown, making it a race where closers could have the edge. That is what makes pace handicapping tricky on occasion: A horse like International Star is a horse to bet against off perfect scenarios, yet he may well get another one Saturday.

The versatility of favorite American Pharoah makes him especially tough. He showed no ability to rate in his early races but he can be considered a stalker in light of his tour de force in the Arkansas Derby. That said, he'll be close-up, and he'll be a relatively light price. So while fully cognizant of the fact that he may be the best horse in the race, that makes him a horse I'll take a shot against. Dortmund, another favorite, has a similar running style. Carpe Diem may have been aided by the race flow in the Blue Grass, and he wants to be close up. Mr. Z, though game in defeat while running against race flows in recent starts, also projects to be part of the early mix, as does Materiality.

That leads to the closers, but I'm most interested in those runners who were not clearly aided by ideal scenarios in their recent preps. Firing Line made up some ground in the Lewis (-SPEED) two back, and while there's no pace label for the Sunland Derby, he certainly didn't have an easy time through swift fractions on the lead there. His ability to rate makes him attractive, and his narrow loss to Dortmund can be forgiven, thanks to the race flow. Danzig Moon closed well in a paceless Blue Grass (-SPEED) and merits respect off that running line. Bolo is another who stands to benefit from the race flow, and the trio from Florida – Upstart, Frosted, and Itsaknockout – all seem to fit the expected pace scenario. Mubtaahij is a bit of an unknown quantity, but we do know he wants to close, and that's a plus. Finally, Frammento – a horse with a big late kick and a pace excuse in the Blue Grass (-SPEED) – has to be strongly considered now that he's in the field, thanks to Thursday's scratch of Stanford.