Rampellini: Two-day Churchill pick three wager
For horseplayers who crave large fields, they don’t get much bigger than those offered in the Kentucky Oaks-Woodford Reserve-Kentucky Derby pick three that straddles the Friday and Saturday cards at Churchill Downs. The races could average 15 starters each, with the Oaks capped at 14, the Woodford drawing 12, and the Derby cutoff 20.
FRIDAY
Kentucky Oaks, Race 11: STELLAR WIND (12) is on top of her game and might get a decent stalking trip behind a few of these. She also gets pedigree support for the move to 1 1/8 miles for the first time. I’M A CHATTERBOX (8) also enters on a roll, seeking her fourth straight win. She’s shown versatility and could track CONDO COMMANDO (5), who is appealing as a multiple graded stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles. No other horse in the field has won at the trip. The distance would seem to suit BIRDATTHEWIRE (13) given her pedigree. One to fear is SHOOK UP (2), whose five-eighths work in 59 seconds April 19 was the fastest of 51 at the distance that morning at Churchill.
First leg: 2, 5, 8, 12, 13
As: 8, 12, 5
Bs: 2, 13
:: Build your pick three ticket with DRF TicketMaker | DRF TicketMaker (Mobile)
SATURDAY
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, Race 10: This felt like the most difficult leg of the pick three as there are obvious horses and a handful of others who seem poised to step up. SEEK AGAIN (9) has not seen action since the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but he was beaten a head by Wise Dan in this race a year ago, when returning from a layoff of similar length. STEPHANIE’S KITTEN (8) faces males, but the multiple Grade 1 winner is 3 for 3 over the course at Churchill. CHOCOLATE RIDE (10), perfect since the blinkers came off three starts ago, has a real chance to steal away. SLUMBER (11) in his two starts this year has been beaten a total of just three-quarters of a length in back-to-back graded stakes at 1 1/8 miles on grass.
Second leg: 8, 9, 10, 11
As: 9, 10
Bs: 11
Cs: 8
Kentucky Derby, Race 11: Champion AMERICAN PHAROAH (18) is seeking his fifth straight win in a streak comprised of nothing but Grade 1 or Grade 2 races. He took the $1 million Arkansas Derby in hand in his most recent start and showed a new dimension, scoring from off the pace. American Pharoah’s natural speed should serve him well in the large field, perhaps keeping him up out of trouble while securing a tracking spot off rivals to his inside. DORTMUND (8) is a fighter. For him, gut-check time seems to be prime time. He’s never lost in six starts, and he’s had success from both on and off the pace. Dortmund is also one of just five horses in the field who has won over the surface at Churchill Downs. UPSTART (19) has achieved triple digits on the Beyer Speed Figure scale three times, something only American Pharoah and Dortmund can also claim. FIRING LINE (10) flattered Dortmund, when, after missing by a head to that one in consecutive starts, he took the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby by 14 1/4 lengths March 28. He ran 1 1/8 miles in 1:47.20, and while it’s not proper practice to compare times achieved over different tracks, no other horse in the field has approached such a clocking for 1 1/8 miles. Further, Firing Line made the pace, continuing on after running six furlongs in 1:09. CARPE DIEM (2) is a multiple Grade 1 winner who brought $1.6 million when sold at auction at 2.
Third leg: 2, 8, 10, 18, 19
As: 8, 18
Bs: 10, 19
Cs: 2