Hammersly: Churchill pick four for Saturday, May 2

A couple of horses who could have been Derby protagonists and the return of a champion mare are some of the intriguing pieces in this middle-of-the-card pick four puzzle.

Race 5

LORD NELSON (#5) was much troubled after a slow start in the Grade 3 Bay Shore, and it wasn’t until he got out of the crowd and away from the kickback that he leveled off. And once he did, he finished strongly. He’s 3 for 4 around one turn, and but for that trouble last time, he’d be unbeaten going one turn. He’s worked well here. COMPETITIVE EDGE (#6) was monstrous in two wins last year, including the Grade 1 Hopeful, but after a setback, he wasn’t seen until March 27. But, boy, did he come back sharp, romping in a stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. He’s got worlds of talent and has to be caught. GIMME DA LUTE (#2) actually boasts the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field as he comes off a romping win in a stakes for California-breds at Santa Anita on April 4, when he got a 100 Beyer. He’s the real deal, though this is a much tougher spot.

A’s) 5, 6
B’s) 2
C’s) None

Race 6

LUCK OF THE KITTEN (#1) has done nothing wrong, finishing in the exacta in all eight starts. He’s shown quality, too, winning a stakes at Santa Anita, nearly winning the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall, and then, off the layoff, finishing a sharp second (beaten a neck) in the Grade 3 Transylvania at Keeneland a few weeks ago. That should serve as the ideal tightener. A LOT (#6) might have turned the corner. He was a nice second in the Grade 3 Dania Beach on Gulfstream’s turf Jan. 3 but then exploded to blast optional claimers there Feb. 22. Usually, once trainer Bill Mott gets them on the right path, they tend to stay there. CONQUEST TYPHOON (#8) got a couple of cracks at synthetic this year to see if he was a potential Derby player. He didn’t run badly, but he’s apparently better on turf and returns to such footing here. He was fourth but not far behind Luck of the Kitten in the BC Juvenile Turf, so he’s got turf quality. DIVISIDERO (#11) showed quite a late kick at Gulfstream, powering home to beat maidens in his debut, and then finished full of run despite a troubled trip to be a good third in the Grade 3 Palm Beach there March 7. That was just his second start, so he has a right to improve further. GRANNY’S KITTEN (#3) looked super in blasting maidens on turf at Belmont last July. He hasn’t been seen since, so there’s a long layoff, and it’s his first time against winners and first time routing, but Mike Maker isn’t one to waste starts, so the fact that he brings this guy back in a spot like this is most intriguing.

A’s) 1, 6
B’s) 8, 11
C’s) 3

Race 7

SWEET REASON (#1) was no match for JUDY THE BEAUTY (#8) in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint at Santa Anita in the fall, but she’s capable of so much better and has been working lights-out for this return, including a bullet here Tuesday to indicate that she likes this place. Judy the Beauty is no doubt the one to beat, as last year’s champion distaff sprinter has loads of quality and has worked well for her return for a trainer who’s strong off the bench. That being said, she looked poised for a big run in this last year but was a non-threatening fourth. Could it be that this isn’t her favorite track? THANK YOU MARYLOU (#2) fizzled in the one-mile, Grade 3 Rampart at Gulfstream last time, but she was a bad actor in the gate and is better at this shorter trip. She’s been freshened, has worked well since, and note that maybe her best race was her Grade 3 Dogwood win over this track and at this trip last summer. DAME DOROTHY (#3) shipped west and ran into a buzz saw in Warren’s Veneda. That gal is one of the top three older distaffers in the land right now (Untapable, Beholder). Dame Dorothy handles most distances, but note that she’s 2 for 2 at seven furlongs, so this might be her best game.

A’s) 1, 8
B’s) 2, 3
C’s) None

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Race 8

LADY LARA (#4) has looked super in three U.S. starts since coming from England, winning two of them. In the lone loss, she was a strong second as she had a lousy start but ran on well to the highly promising Sparkling Review in the Grade 2 Mrs. Revere over this course. She just edged a few of these in the Grade 2 Honey Fox at Gulfstream on March 28 and is eligible to improve further. COFFEE CLIQUE (#5) won this last year and then won the Grade 1 Just a Game on the Belmont undercard. She wasn’t seen again for nearly 10 months but came back to be a solid third behind Lady Lara in the Honey Fox and can certainly improve with that run under her belt. Her tactical speed should have her in a good spot from the bell. SANDIVA (#8) finished just a neck behind Lady Lara in the Honey Fox and 1 1/4 lengths ahead of Coffee Clique. That made for a third straight strong outing, so she’s apparently fully acclimated to her new surroundings. Remember, they thought enough of her in England last spring to try her in a couple of Group 1s, and she was far from disgraced. PERSONAL DIARY (#1) could be your upsetter. She has ample quality (won the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks last summer), and while she was only fourth in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland last month, that was her first start in five months, so she can benefit from that outing.

A’s) 4
B’s) 5, 8
C’s) 1