Bernier: How I'd play Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs

Handicappers Matt Bernier and Kenny Peck are going head to head with $500 to wager on the Kentucky Oaks Day card at Churchill Downs.

The early portion of Friday’s Oaks card left something to be desired, but what the first half lacked in interesting wagering opportunities the second half more than made up for.

RACE 8: The Alysheba does absolutely nothing for me from an individual race stand point, but it is the opening leg of the late pick four. Accordingly, I’ll play a 50-cent pick four:

Race 8: 2, 7
Race 9: 2, 8, 9, 10, 11
Race 10: 2, 7, 8, 9, 12
Race 11: 5, 8, 12
Total: $75

:: Kenny Peck’s Kentucky Oaks Day plays

RACE 9: Many runners in the Turf Sprint have questions, whether it be race shape, the five-furlong distance being too short or too long, etc. The one horse in the race I have no questions about regarding intention and why his connections are here is BUSTER ROSE (#9). Buster Rose is a crack turf sprinter (5 for 5 lifetime), and trainer Stephen Dunn is outstanding when it comes to horses on grass (unbeaten in six turf sprints; five being Buster Rose). He’s 20-1 on the morning line, and while I can’t envision any scenario in which he goes off that high, I could absolutely see 12-1 being realistic – and that’s a big play for me.

$100 WIN/SHOW: Buster Rose = $200
$2 EXACTA: ALL / 9 = $22
Total: $222

RACE 10: The pace scenario in the Eight Belles looks like it could be quite swift, and because of that I’ll look for LAVENDER CHRISSIE (#7) to come from just out of it. She’s very lightly raced and projects to work out a lovely trip under Javier Castellano. Her latest effort wasn’t the most spectacular visually, however it must be noted that the second- and third-place finishers that day came back to win next out. Add that Dale Romans excels with runners making this sort of move (DRF FORMULATOR FACT - Past Four Years, Winner Last Out, 2nd off the layoff, Sprinting at Churchill Downs: 3 for 6 (4 ITM), $4.93 ROI) and I’ll gladly take a shot with her in this spot. I’ll play her to win and show as well as key her in exotics.

$20 WIN/SHOW: Lavender Chrissie = $40
$.50 TRIFECTA: 7 / 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 11, 12 / 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 11, 12 = $21
$.50 TRIFECTA: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 11, 12 / 7 / 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 11, 12 = $21
$.50 TRIFECTA: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 11, 12 / 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 11, 12 / 7 = $21
Total= $103

RACE 11: CONDO COMMANDO (#5) looms as the controlling speed in the Kentucky Oaks, and while I’ve never been a fan of hers I must acknowledge the fact that she’s won at nine furlongs on two different occasions – while none of the other fillies have even contested a race going nine furlongs. I’ll play her to win as well as key in exactas using both I’M A CHATTERBOX (#8) and STELLAR WIND (#12).
$50 WIN: Condo Commando = $50
$15 EXACTA: 5 / 8, 12 = $30
$10 EXACTA: 8, 12 / 5 = $20
Total = $100