With the eighth race staying on the turf, Share the Sugar appears a likely winner. A first-out winner sprinting on the Polytrack at Keeneland April 4, she ran a fast-closing fourth there as well on the grass April 23 after hopping at the start.
California Chrome’s challenge in the Belmont Stakes is to run slower than he ever has. In his dozen starts, he never has gone an opening half-mile slower than 47.20. But how long can he, or will he, run more slowly? Will he get bored and start champing at the bit? And if California Chrome submits to a slower tempo, can he, at some point in the second six furlongs, lay down a couple of those 12-second furlongs and blow the race open?
A helpful set of statistics in analyzing which Belmont horses might thrive at 1 1/2 miles are the average progeny winning distances of a horse’s sire and dam. Those numbers can provide a snapshot of a sire’s ability to impart stamina on his progeny or a dam’s capabilities as a producer.
After giving California Chrome his due and selecting him in the Preakness, it’s now time to give history its due and seek out some value in trying to beat the odds-on favorite in the Belmont Stakes.
Immediately after he won the Preakness, I wondered if California Chrome would be able to produce yet another top effort in the Belmont Stakes. California Chrome seemed to have a more demanding race at Pimlico than he did when he won the Kentucky Derby.
If this were an ordinary race, it would be hard to see past the 3-5 morning-line favorite. But the Belmont Stakes has devolved into one of the most extraordinarily random races on the American racing calendar.
At the risk of seeming like Dr. Seuss’s The Grinch – with a heart two sizes too small – my wagering strategy in the Belmont will be to bet Wicked Strong and, to a lesser extent, Tonalist to upset California Chrome in the final leg of the Triple Crown.
California Chrome has held top form all spring and reportedly thrived at Belmont Park. His six straight wins at four different tracks include the Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby, and Preakness Stakes. His tactical speed all but ensures another comfortable trip.
DRF Plus handicapping analysis for Santa Anita on Thursday, June 5.
DRF Plus handicapping analysis for Churchill Downs on Thursday, June 5.
