Belmont: Closer Looks for June 6, 2014

Race 1

Valuetempo

Sire is 16-for-129 (12%) with 2-year-old debut starters; 5-for-106 (5%) with 1st-turf runners; is out of a stakes-placed dam (4-for-26, 105K) who went 8-0-0-0 on turf (3K) graduating in start 4; her only other foal to race is 0-for-7 Giacomae Mountain who did not race on grass.

Spanish Armada

Sire is 7-for-94 (7%) with 2-year-old debut starters; 16-for-127 (13%) with 1st-turf runners; is out of an unraced dam who produced 3 winners from 3 other foals to race including War Singer who went 2-for-11 on grass (53K).

Sunset Glow

Filly vs. the boys; the show finisher from last Beyered 54 in a PID-MSW win next out; sire earned 112K on the green; he is 33-for-290 (11%) with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of a SP-dam who raced excusively on grass (2-for-7, 51K) and won her career debut.

Crown the Kitten

Sire banked 2M on grass; he is 36-for-218 (17%) with 2-year-old debut starters; 49-for-314 (16%) with 1st-turf runners; is the 1st foal out of a 3-for-12 dam (76K) who went 3-0-1-0 on grass (12K); she graduated in her 6th start.

The Truth Or Else

Sire is 62-for-422 (15%) with 2-year-old debut starters; 20-for-346 (6%) with 1st-turf runners; is out of a Grade 3-SW dam (6-for-30, 556K) who won her career debut ( 2-0-0-0 on grass); she produced 3 winners from 6 other foals to race (top earner 153K Fighter Wing); 4 foals to race on grass are 0-for-8 combined.

Swing Dixie

Sire banked 882K on grass; he is 1-for-13 (8%) with 2-year-old debut starters; 3-for-27 (11%) with 1st-turf runners; is out of a 7-for-38 dam (144K) (3-18 turf 65K) who graduated in start 5; she produced 2 winners from 5 other foals to race (56K California Gold); 1 foal to turf went 0-for-4.

Careful Choice

Filly vs. males; sire is 0-for-2 with 2-year-old debut starters; 0-for-0 with 1st-turf runners; is out of a SP-dam (1-for-9, 69K) who went 2-0-0-0 on grass but did not win until start 9; she produced 4 winners from 5 other foals to race (121K Jacoby's Run); 3 foals to turf are 0-for-4 combined.- Art Gropper

Race 4

Queen Nine

Never one for an off track, that comeback race last month can be discounted; returns to a distance where she earned his best lifetime Beyer by far; drops in half for this assignment and should give a far better account if a fast track is the order of the day.

Shalala

Quit early in her latest run when jammed up between rivals; has not been in a sprint setting in quite some time and has never earned an exacta finish over the course; will have to improve substantially in order to be in the mix against these ladies.

Rock Show

Exits the same race as the previous runner and could only manage a distant fourth; although all 3 of her victories have been over this soil, she has shown little firepower of late and this turnback may prove too tall an order; cannot vote for the top spot.

Magma (GB)

The mare has never raced over the Belmont main but has been facing better stock on the turf of late; she has failed to hit the board since the January claim, however, and even at this reduced level may have difficulties; generous odds likely once again.

Taylor Jagger

She was involved in a pace battle in the early stages of her last assignment; drops to the purchase price today and should be able to rally from midpack on this cutback; if possible, see if the front bandages have been removed for this outing.

Twillerbee

Wheels right back after a game placing at the shore behind favored Toe Jam Football; although a newcomer to Belmont, her prompting style of running fits this race and, with a weight concession from the entire field, she may be able secure favorable stalking position.

Clara Lives Strong

One of the more consistent members of this line-up, she may prove especially dangerous here if able to catch an off-track; Finger Lakes import will be inviting odds for a change based on the numerical rise but lands into a field without much gate speed on view; curious item.

First Penny

Veteran has been shut out during the last 2 seasons and has never scored at this oval; turned in a solid showing behind Quiet Sunshine 2 races back and now draws inside that key rival and gets a weight shift in her favor as well; may be able to turn the tables.

Quiet Sunshine

Completed a hat trick in mid-April and was given a well deserved rest; does prefer the Big A over the Belmont soil yet still can continue the streak here as this field comes up light for the price tag involved; logical contender but may be vastly overbet.- Jim Kachulis

Race 5

Lady Kreesa

Half-sister to G3 winner King Kreesa (6-18, 657k, including 6 of 16 turf starts for 656k) has the look of a top contender after a very encouraging career debut going a mile over this turf course; maybe there is something to be said for Ortiz piloting another in here, but this miss loses nothing with John V. in the pedals.

Tenacious Indeed

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won 7 of 41 starts for 234k, including 4 of 20 turf starts for 156k; winner from debut won next out here on 5/16 going 6f vs. N1X rivals with a 90 Beyer, and runner up won next out here on 5/9 going 6f vs. MSW rivals with an 84 Beyer.

Keep Right

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and stakes winning dam won 2 of 7 starts for 93k, including 0-for-1 over turf; she has enough turf in her pedigree to believe that there's a chance for her to show more with the surface switch.

Rose Quartz

She has turf in her pedigree and she's eligible to take a step forward now that she has racing experience to draw from; her dam won 4 of 16 starts for 69k, including 3 of 6 turf starts for 52k; can't ignore.

Confessa

Her career debut can be viewed in a positive light and this filly is a 1/2 to multiple stakes winner Baffle Me (7-21, 427k, including 5 of 13 turf starts for 323k); she's another who can be ready for better the second time around, and her most recent workout looks sharp.

Saharan Serenade

Sire wins with approximately 7% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who was winless from five starts, including a couple of turf starts; obviously this miss will need to improve in her turf debut in order to contend.

Celtic Sunrise

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 13% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; Ortiz lands here and this is a barn that can have one ready to go long over turf at first asking.

Sweetdreamsaboutme

Sire wins with approximately 3% of his first-time starters and with approximately 6% of his turf starters, and dam won 7 of 32 starts for 134k, including 4 of 14 turf starts for 86k; this filly is 1/2 to Dreamin of Victory (17-39, 286k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 33k).

Chasing Paradise

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; this filly is a 1/2 to multiple stakes placed Scientist (3-9, 97k over turf); 4-year-old is making only her second start but they were looking to get her over turf in her career debut.

Dixie Gem

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who was winless from seven starts, including one turf start; she was outrun at every point of call in her career debut after going to post at 25-1.

Regifting

She hasn't produced a competitive performance through her first six starts, including a couple of turf starts, and her connections will hope that she can show more while taking blinkers off.

Traipse in Utopia

Like to see the steady improvement she's shown through her first three starts, and she stepped it up nicely along the Beyer Speed Figure scale in her turf debut in her latest outing; she'll rate top contender status if she gets to run in this spot.

La Dama de Hierro

She earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure in her first turf start in her latest outing but she's going to need to improve over that performance if she's planning on pressuring the top contenders in here.

Chichita

She's struggled to get anything going in her first two starts and she is going to need to dial up a much improved performance in order to have a say in the outcome; she has the look of an outsider.

Fire Ship

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and dam won 3 of 13 starts for 100k, and she didn't make a turf start; turf is a question, but a few of her dirt starts have been respectable performances.

Shades of Indygo

Late running miss will find herself in a favorable spot if this race has to be taken off the turf and her latest effort was one of her sharper starts; she has to worry about the possibility of this race having a slow early tempo, but she's clearly a contender.- Brian Pochman

Race 6

Pearls for Girls

Tries winners for the first time after wiring maidens at odds on in her first local spin; she's got some early foot and now she moves to the fence in a field that doesn't look to contain a lot of that commodity; barn doesn't do so well with runners seeking the repeat but they may have to come and get this gal to win.

Official

Took a big step forward when dropped in for a tag in her first start for this sharp outfit and now they'll move her up to face winners; barn keeps them going second time back from the break and she's shown she can settle in a tracking spot and finish which could help her on the slight stretchout; consider.

Let Me Be Nuts

First part of the barn's coupling makes her first start of the year while returning to the scene of her maiden score late last summer; filly will shorten up a bit today but the hot outfit boasts some luck with the move and she has shown she can a run a big off works; low percentage pilot gets aboard but it does help her get in a little light.

Lady Rhubarb

Earned a light number in beating claimers second time out this year; filly showed a solid tracking gear from the outside starting slot in that one which was encouraging considering she had show early lick in each of her prior several spins; maybe she's close again from the bell in this one, but she'll need to step things up from a figure point to have a serious say in the outcome with these winners.

Charming Eyes

Didn't have enough to get past the winner while troubled in beating 2 other foes home at the level last time; filly has shown she likes the track, but she's yet to run close to fast enough to contend if some of these gals bring their best; looking elsewhere for the winner.

Saythreehailmary's

Other half of the barn's coupling exploded to best maidens by open lengths when stretched out in her local debut run second time out; she'll tackle winners for the initial time in this spot but the numbers she's earned fit extremely well in here and with just a couple of starts under her belt she certainly has a right to keep getting better; looks like they'll have her to beat.

Bridgetta

Mare had things her own way up top while returning from 15 months on the shelf before kicking away through an extremely quick final quarter mile fraction to beat conditioned claimers; field's lone multiple winner tries statebreds while returning in just over a couple of weeks in this spot and that may make it tough for her to get back to the career best effort she just threw at us; still, it's tough to just look past her on those grounds as maybe she's just a new runner; contender.

Sheriffa

Cuts back to a sprint trip after catching slop when beaten chalk in her return to the scene of her maiden score; she did show a solid turn of foot while taking the lead along the way in that one and it certainly looked as if the route was just too much for her; return to sprinting should help get her going at what figures to be a much improved price.

Kate Is a Ten

Outside drawn filly was a well beaten third at a longer trip when in for a tag last time; she didn't have much to offer at the level 2 back and don't know that she's going to go much better at this reduced trip; have to side against this longshot. - Steve Grabowski

Race 7

Send the Limo

Turf debut solid but she has the Donk charge to deal with again among others; stakes winning 5 for 15 dam banked nearly $145K, was 2nd twice in best grass results; 3 of 4 siblings won; one was a triple winner on turf, top kin Whiskey Romeo took 3 stakes, banked over $200K; legit player today.

The Right Bird

Birdstone 4 for 107 with first-time turfers; sire took debut at 2, disappointed many when shocking Smarty Jones in the Belmont, never turfed; dam's lone win was a dirt sprint; all 5 siblings won; a couple won on grass including Grade 1 winner and near $450K earner Karlovy Vary; winner 3/16 took the Grade 2 Black Eyed Susan next out; toss the muddy fiasco last time.

Winner's Legacy

She seemed on the verge after the May finale last year but was eased to closed year and shuffled to kick off 2014; several siblings tried grass to no avail; lack of speed is a concern; needs a turn around.

Quarla

Drops a notch with the shades; 2nd and 3rd finishers 1/19 graduated next out and the winner that day took a $75K optional in next with a 79 Beyer; dam took one dirt sprint; lone half sis lost 14 times; may like it here.

Shaikha

She has drilled solidly since the claim; 4th finisher in last took a $25K maiden claimer and 5th finisher won a $20K maiden seller in next; 2/8 winner repeated in an N1X with an 84 Beyer; connections would love to she her mature like top kin, G2 winner and near $450K earner Princess Haya; looms clever claim.

Laghazirella Beach

She has taken the overland route every time; 7 for 23 dam earned $240K, won 5 times on grass; one sibling lost twice, the other was 0 for 23; must display more.

Causeways Friend

Realistically placed as she cost $40K; dam was 0 for 5; both siblings won including an over $200K earner but neither tried grass; must pick it up.

Zuma Moon

Nice middle move to get within 2 of the leaders and then she still tried till the end; there is an over $400K earner in the tree and a 4-time grass winner; she was nearly 6 clear in last; slight improvement and she will be a handful.

Time for Harlan

Was unprepared in the debut and only a brief threat in last; dam was unraced; all 3 siblings won; all banked 6 figures, 2 won on grass; in for $12K less than purchase price; this miss looks live.

Hiddenite

Over 3 clear two back before stumbling; there is a grass winner in the family and also an over $125K earner; miss may have disliked the rail in last; key off the April finale and she's a player.

Untiltherewasyou

Big Brown 12 for 100 with debuters, 9 for 68 with first-time turfers; sire took only start at 2, won first two legs of the Triple Crown, banked over $3.6 million, never turfed; SW 3 for 4 dam banked over $50K, never turfed; several multiple race winners in the family including a triple grass winner and a near $500K earner Gotaghostofachance; the blood is there.

Wine Burglar

Best Beyer was at this very level; blowout ont he 27th should have her on her toes; respect everything from this barn; fresh and dangerous.

Notional Girl

Not thrilled with the fact she has lost vs. softer; 3rd and 4th finishers 1/31 graduated next out; and there is a grass winner in the family; could be compromised by the post if she gets a shot to suit up. - Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Oration

This is a pretty tough N1X event, but this gelding has run well in his first five starts, including a couple of turf starts, and he owns the type of early speed that can come in handy in a turf dash like this; Bravo gets more than his share of live calls from this barn

Battle Call

He's shown the ability to put together a decent performance from time to time, but his complete lack of early speed is always a concern, and his best effort doesn't appear to be strong enough for these.

Profluent

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and dam was winless from four starts, including 0-for-1 over turf; 3-year-old is a 1/2 to Kidding (5-27, 113k over turf); this barn hasn't been at their best with recent turf starters, but he can't be ignored in his turf debut while going out for a high win percentage outfit.

Father Johns Pride

Based on what he showed us in his one turf attempt, it's a good idea to respect him as a top contender, and like the idea of him making his first start in a true turf dash; it looks like he tuned up with a sharp four furlongs on May 24 in preparation for this.

Truth Is

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and G3 stakes placed dam won 3 of 16 starts for 182k, including 0-for-1 over turf; winner from latest returned to win next out here on 5/10 going 6 1/2f vs. 62k OPC's with a 102 Beyer.

Casa Creek

If you're looking for the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, he has it, and he didn't run poorly in his one turf start prior to this routing; runner up from latest won next out at CD on 5/26 going 5f over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 75 Beyer.

Bluegrass Springs

He's two-for-two in his starts going six furlongs over turf, and both of those starts have been over this turf course; his best effort can get him into the mix against these and Ortiz seems to get along with him well.

Shore Runner

Half-brother to stakes placed Captain Webb (3-25, 97k over turf) has run well in four of his first five starts, and it was nice to see what he did in his latest outing when given another chance to see what he can do over turf; winner from latest returned to win next out here on 5/23 going 7f over turf vs. N1X rivals with an 85 Beyer.

Grand Arrival

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam won once from eight starts for 39k, and she didn't make a turf start; he showed a little something in his first two career starts, but he need to show more to get the better of these in his first turf attempt.

Escapist

Have to respect his chances after an impressive career debut going five furlongs over turf at Gulfstream Park, and this colt is out of a multiple stakes placed dam who won 3 of 18 turf starts for 137k, and he's a 1/2 to Salvar (3-14, 53k, including 2 of 3 turf starts for 22k).

Partly Mocha

Four-time winner has been a pretty consistent performer, and he was sharp when returned from a similar layoff at this time last year; like to see that he has had some success over this turf course, and it looks like he's been training well in preparation for his 2014 racing debut.

You're The Boss (GB)

He finished a clear second in his first start in America in his latest outing and it's not unreasonable to look for him to be ready to take a step forward while making his second start as a 4-year-old; leaning toward others for the top spot, but not willing to count him out of the exotics mix.

Dreaming of Danny

He needs to see a scratch from the main body of this race in order to draw in and it's interesting to see him being turned back to a sprint distance while making only his second start since moving into this barn; five-time winner is worth keeping an eye out for.- Brian Pochman

Race 9

Eastwood

Lightly raced 4 year old tackles his toughest bunch yet while making just his second start of the year; barn does nice worth with its runners second back from the break, but this guy didn't have enough late to go on with allowance runners in either of his last 2 starts and the guy who beat him quite handily here last month returns in this spot as well; tough task ahead of him from the fence.

Marriedtothemusic

Was hoping we'd get to see this statebred give the lawn a shot in the 6 panel Jaipur here tomorrow but he's entered to tackle graded stakes sprinters on the main track today; he'll have his main pace foe drawn to his immediate outside in this spot and don't know that he's as quick as that guy early, but he does get the better of the draw and he showed last time that he's not just going to pack it in if he gets off to an awkward beginning; still, he's going to have to work hard every step of the way and that won't make it easy for him on the rise to this level.

Dads Caps

Fresh colt fought off an early pace challenge but from a time standpoint really had things his own way when last sighted in the 7 panel G1 Carter score across town; field's lone G1 SW may be the quickest of this bunch early and he's fired off breaks in the past; he's working better of late for his return and he'll get the services of a top local pilot for this; the presence of the statebred drawn to his inside means he'll have to fight a bit for the top, but he was able to score from a tracking spot in the fall and he's a better animal now; one to beat.

Integrity

Had some erratic moments in wiring 3 foes in an off the turf overnight stake here early last month; colt has come into his own this year and his 2 best races from a speed figure standpoint have come over the local main track, but he'll catch tougher in this spot and it's interesting to note that Castellano opts to stick with the barn's other, uncoupled entrant in here who hasn't been out since the day after Christmas.

Royal Currier

Tries graded stakes foes after picking up a minor award against cheaper in his second start off this barn's claim; it's been a long time since he's won and his interim breeze was pretty slow so don't think a big move forward from his last will be on tap today; appears to be a couple of notches below the contenders in this heat.

Salutos Amigos

Gelding has looked like a new runner since moved to this barn earlier in the year; he'll tackle better than he's been facing, but his prior outfit did have high hopes for him last year and though he didn't do all that much for them he did keep pretty good company; wouldn't be surprised to see him get involved for a share in his current form.

Palace

Barn's second runner in here is also a New York bred who likes the local main track, but he spots each of his foes weight while returning to this circuit off a beaten chalk effort in Maryland; 5 year old has run well fresh in the past and he does figure to appreciate the return to 6 panels; with quick recent breezes on his tab he appears to be on his toes for the comebacker and if things get hot up top he may be one to come rolling in the lane, but not that Cornelio opts to side with his uncoupled mate today; consider.

Bakken

Makes his first start of the year while returning to the track over which he impressively broke his maiden on the front end in the fall; they went pretty fast early in his G1 Malibu try first time out West and when he wasn't able to get near the lead he failed to offer much in the lane; he could face a similar problem from this starting slot, but he's had time to mature and he is Castellano's choice; solid breezes give the indication he's quite fit and he did win off works to begin his career; can't overlook.

Well Spelled

Gray enters this off a freshening for an outfit that doesn't do particularly well with this type; his efforts in Maryland this year weren't very good and the only number showing that fits here came in a fast paced sophomore stakes upset that fell into his lap; tough to make a solid case for him today.- Steve Grabowski

Race 10

Wings of Fortune

Projects as the main speed off latest when posting a new career-best Beyer speed figure racing 1st time for a new owner and trainer; has raced well at 1 Mile and a half in the past and cleary has never been better; makes his stakes debut at a distance only 1 runner in the field has ever attempted; win rider lands on Sky Blazer for this.

Sky Blazer

His last win was a last-to-1st rally; projects that 2 Miles is well within his scope; last pair were way off his best form; recent worktab for this was solid and reunites with a rider who has only piloted once (5th) but had other options here; saves ground then makes one run.

Charming Kitten

Exits a best-last-race Beyer when finishing evenly on Preakness day at much shorter than this; did not show late spark at 1M and a half 3 races ago and will need to find the missing passing gear to score; great sign that he keeps Johnny V who had other options; defeated the 2-back show finisher who Beyered 97 in a next-out CD-optional-claiming win.

Reflecting

Took a long time for him to graduate and enters this on a drought winless since April, 2013; keeps Rosario who had another option here; raced on the lead 3 back so projects to offer some gate speed for this after bumped in last; recent Beyers suggest he is overmatched in this spot; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Spy in the Sky

The winner and show finisher from last took Grade 3 and 75K stakes next out; is the only runner in the field to have raced at least 2 Miles; in his last 19 races only one time did he race under 2M and that was last summer on BEL turf finishing last vs much lesser; the trainer does well with fresh runners but this 10-year-old would be a shocker off a 12-race losing streak; his latest win was an August, 2012, steeeplechase at SAR.

Irish Mission

Mare vs. the boys; her trainer is known for winning with fresh runners but today marks her 3rd start in 34 days and is back in just 13 days for this; a stakes winner during career vs. males at 1M and a half; she raced close to the front early in latest and figures to be an early factor again here.

Auld Alliance (IRE)

Filly vs. the boys; she has just 7 starts so gives away experience to each runner; win rider sides with Charming Kitten for this but you won't get a sharper pilot than Castellano as a replacement; hopes to workout a stalking trip like she did when prepping for this in victory.

Draw Two

1st-blinkered race produced a new career-Top Beyer speed figure when defeating the runner-up finisher who Beyered 93 in a next-out BEL allowance win; his win rider takes Reflecting for this; has to get by Charming Kitten who had his number earlier this year and handled him when testing graded stakes rivals in 2013.

Eagle Poise

Exits his lowest Beyer since July, 2009; is the least fancied of the 3 runners trained by Motion entered in this event; the runner-up finisher from last posted a 97 speed figure in his next-out CD-G3 stakes win; gate issues in recent races noting his best Beyer since 2013 was when breaking 2nd.

Comes the Dream

Projected as one of the main pacesetters in this marathon event but hard to like off the 2-back fade vs. Draw Two; this is just his 2nd stakes start nearly upsetting optional claimers in latest when racing right on the lead; know him early but unsure about late.

Twilight Eclipse

Won his GP Grade 2 following a similar layoff; away since exiting a race with 4 next-out winners; the runner-up, show, 6th and 8th-place finishers from last won 414K-167K-104K and 62K races next out; field-best Beyer was posted in the 2013 Breeders' Cup Turf when rallying strongly at 1M and a half; his 2-back speed figure was strong in the USA; scary if ready.

Mambo Man

Dominated TUP-marathon runners for his 3rd in a row but owns a declining-Beyer pattern for this; the 3-back victory looks better since the show finisher Beyered 89 in a next-out SA-OPC win; was claimed 3 times since September; seems to be shooting high here.- Art Gropper