Free's review: Underlay winners still not attractive plays

BB in MSW

In reality, the meaning of the term “best bet” in Daily Racing Form is “most probable winner.” That was the case Sunday in race 1 at Santa Anita.

American Pride was a likely winner, returning from a 10-month layoff in a special weight sprint. His 2013 Del Mar form was sharp. His workouts for trainer Bob Baffert were solid.

American Pride, however, started at 3-10, a price that few self-respecting horseplayers would accept in any situation. American Pride ($2.60) was an underlay yet won the six-furlong race in 1:09 and earned a sharp 99 Beyer. It was a highly rated win by a good horse. But at odds-on, he was an underlay.

Runner-up Steep N Deep ran well in defeat. He set the pace, appeared to be running easily, then lugged in through the lane and was worn down. He will be “live” next out in a similar special weight sprint. You won’t see 9-1 on him again.

Third-place finisher Wrightwood ran well in his first start since November for owner Heinz Steinmann (from the California mountain town of Wrightwood). Mike Harrington trains Wrightwood, who finished well and galloped well in a decent comeback.

The bottom line is that race 1 Sunday could turn out to be a productive race, even if it was unappealing from a wagering perspective.

Claiming claimers

Dr. Williams ($7.40) earned an 81 Beyer winning race 2, a $10,000 claiming route, his sixth win from 17 starts. He was claimed by Eric Kruljac in a four-way shake and will be live going up the ladder. Third-place finisher Tuckers Point goes to Jack Carava (one claim).

L T Reckless ($4) earned an 82 Beyer winning race 3, a $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies, her third win from four starts. Eddie Truman claimed her from Robertino Diodoro, but the claim was voided when she was “off” in the right front. Runner-up Time for Angie was claimed by Mike Puype in a seven-way shake. Trainer Peter Miller claimed a pair of maidens from race 9 – runner-up Aftermarketslam and fourth-place Super Reagan.

A new claiming rule goes into effect July 1 that will give owners and trainers the option to accept a claim regardless of post-race condition. A claim submitted on a horse that is euthanized or dies on the racetrack will remain voided.

Not vulnerable

Wasted at Midnight was considered vulnerable in race 4, a special weight maiden sprint that was the ninth start of her career. But second-start-back Spy Girl scratched, and fast-working first-timer Little Miss S misfired. Wasted at Midnight ($8.20) took advantage of ideal conditions and cruised by more than three lengths with a 78 Beyer.

Yes, underlay runners do win (race 1 for example, or California Chrome in the Triple Crown). It does not make them a worthy wagering proposition. As for Little Miss S, she worked better than she ran and is probably worth a second chance. That depends, of course, on her price.

Pick six

Five of the 11 runners in the finale, race 9, were covered in the pick six. But comebacker Real Deal Appeal was not one of them. Trained by Paul Aguirre and ridden by Iggy Puglisi, Real Deal Appeal set the pace in the $20,000 maiden-claimer, opened up, and was never threatened. Real Deal Appeal’s $15.80 upset generated a pick six carryover into June 5 of $129,366.

Horses to watch

STEEP N DEEP
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Last race: June 1, 1st
Finish: 2nd by 1
Beyer: 96

This first-time starter ran fast enough to win most special weight sprints. He broke well, set a fast pace, and got worn down by the odds-on favorite. It was a super 9-1 debut by STEEP N DEEP. When he starts next, he is likely to be favored.

WRIGHTWOOD
Trainer: Mike Harrington
Last race: June 1, 1st
Finish: 3rd by 3 1/4
Beyer: 91

After a six-month layoff, this Elusive Quality colt returned with an improved effort in the third start of his career. He broke slowly again, finished well, and is bred to run farther than six furlongs.