Weekend Warrior for June 7: Picks for Met Mile, Manhattan, Just a Game
The undercard for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park is so sensational that the Weekend Warrior just had to tackle it. So, here is an all-Belmont Warrior focusing on stakes that are interesting betting races. The Ogden Phipps is a fantastic race, but among Beholder, Princess of Sylmar, and, to a lesser extent, Close Hatches, there’s not much money to be made in it. And for the record, I prefer Beholder to Princess of Sylmar because of her better positional speed, which gives her first run.
Metropolitan Handicap
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Palace Malice, the winner of the 2013 Belmont Stakes, is in raging form. You have to use him in all wagers and as an “A” horse in all multirace exotics. He did draw the rail, and that’s no bargain in a race like this. But the Beyer Speed Figures that Palace Malice earned in dominating stakes wins in his last two starts are better than any Beyer anyone else in this field has ever earned.
But I’m not as fearful of others in here whom other folks might consider logical additional horses to use. Normandy Invasion was no match for Palace Malice in the New Orleans Handicap, but he is talented and might like the cutback to a one-turn mile. However, Normandy Invasion is still eligible for a second-level allowance and has yet to win a stakes of any sort, and I don’t want him as the second choice in the betting.
Goldencents ran some fine races last year but is coming off a six-month layoff, and his Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile win was aided by a profound speed bias. Central Banker and Shakin It Up were only a head apart when one-two in the quickly run Churchill Downs Stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard. But neither has yet demonstrated that he is Met Mile good.
Moreno is my prime alternative to Palace Malice. Moreno finished third in the Charles Town Classic in his first start this year and fourth in the Pimlico Special last time out, and both efforts were better than they appear on paper. Moreno was coming off a five-month layoff at Charles Town, seemed to have trouble with the tight turns, and re-rallied after conceding position in the middle stages. At Pimlico, Moreno was involved in a very fast early pace for that track and finished well ahead of the other two who were pace factors, including Valid, who came back to miss by a nose in last week’s Mountainview Handicap.
Last year, Moreno showed quality when he was nosed by divisional champion Will Take Charge in the Travers, in which he finished ahead of Palace Malice, who, it must be noted, had a bad trip. But Moreno also showed a fondness for Belmont, winning both of his starts over the track, including the Dwyer Stakes.
Manhattan Stakes
Real Solution is probably the best horse in this race but has developed a hanging habit, which he showed last time out when second in the Man o’ War. Imagining is versatile, but he capitalized on an easy lead when he won the Man o’ War. Seek Again is okay off a near miss in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic to Horse of the Year Wise Dan. But I prefer Grandeur.
Grandeur was beaten only a little more than a length when third in the Man o’ War but was compromised by the easy pace, and I don’t think he was comfortable being stuck down inside of horses when it was time to go from late on the far turn on home. Grandeur gets more pace to run at this time, I like the slight cutback in distance for him, and he’s first time Lasix, all of which suggests he will be a much tougher customer.
Just a Game Stakes
I suppose there is a chance that Stephanie’s Kitten isn’t what she used to be after finishing eighth of 10 as the favorite in the Jenny Wiley in her first start this year. But I would be surprised if that were the case, and I’m taking her to rebound.
Stephanie’s Kitten was bottled up on the rail at a crucial point in the Jenny Wiley, and I don’t think she was abused when she finally did get clear, because by then, she had no shot to win. Stephanie’s Kitten won this race last year, and while it is true that she had the better trip when she beat Better Lucky that day, I always thought Stephanie’s Kitten was the slightly better horse.