Free's preview: Pick six a tricky prospect

The pick six Thursday at Santa Anita is the topic of conversation. With a carryover of $129,366 already in the pot, new money could exceed $750,000. Now is a good time for a closer look at several Thursday races.

Key scratch

The U.S. debut of Habibi will be delayed. The Group 1 winner from New Zealand was scheduled to start Thursday in race 4. But she came down with a cough at the wrong time and will be declared.

“She’s been coughing after training last few days,” trainer Dan Blacker said via text. “Nothing serious, just bad timing.”

Too bad. Habibi fit the conditions. A multiple-graded stakes winner, she was eligible to the turf allowance because she had not won a stakes at a mile or more this year. Her comeback target could be June 28 in the Grade 2 Royal Heroine Mile Stakes.

If she makes her U.S. debut in the Royal Heroine, a possible rival is Parranda, better-than-looked third last week in the Grade 1 Gamely Stakes. Parranda fell out of position early and rallied against the grain of the race shape. She is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.

As for Habibi, she won the New Zealand Derby in March 2013, the highlight of a 6-for-9 career during which she has earned $566,935. She is owned by Augustin Stables.

Race 3: First leg of pick six

An interesting group of 2-year-old maiden fillies races five furlongs in race 3. It’s the first five-furlong race of the season for 2-year-olds. Seven of the eight are first-time starters. The only experienced runner is longshot Soul Crusader, third with a low number first out.

A pair of Smart Strike fillies debuts with sharp works. They are 9-5 program favorite Screaming Skylar, trained by Peter Miller, and 5-2 second choice Bennett Jean, whose trainer is Ted H. West.

Smart Strike is a win-early sire, 15 percent debut winners. Screaming Skylar is a full sister to the Grade 2 Alcibiades Stakes winner Bel Air Beauty, a graded stakes winner at 2 and 3. Bennett Jean is out of a dam that has produced four winners. Interestingly, none of those four winners won more than a single maiden race.

Joe Talamo rides Bennett Jean. According to National Turf clocker Andy Harrington, Talamo has been aboard Bennett Jean during sharp morning works.

Heart of Paradise is live first out for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Champion Risk has worked well for Doug O’Neill. A pick six bettor might need to go four deep: Screaming Skylar, Bennett Jean, Heart of Paradise, and Champion Risk. That’s a lot to spend in a race that could be chalky.

Race 4: Smaller and easier

The scratch of Habibi turns this one-mile turf allowance into a potential single for small pick-six tickets. Theatre Star is the 7-5 favorite, dropping from a better-than-looked fourth in the Grade 3 Wilshire Stakes.

Theatre Star was expected to set second behind longshot frontrunner Journey On, but that never happened. It was Theatre Star who smoked to the lead, set fast fractions, and faded to fourth. The race was won by Parranda (better-than-looked third in Gamely).

The main opposing speed for Theatre Star is drawn inside. Kathleen Rose has won four of her last five, including an N2X. She is a notch below the favorite on speed figures, but her numbers gradually continue to move up.

The “longshots” are Unusual Hottie, a California-bred stakes winner; the $40,000 claim Redressthebalance; and the second-start back Spring Bloom.

Bottom line: Small tickets will consider favorite Theatre Star as a potential single.

Race 5: Bottom barrel

Wine Country Wanda is 9-5. Lust for Life is 5-2. Can a pick ticket survive by using only those two? If one of the two favorites does not win this maiden-20, anyone can. Wine Country Wanda hit the board three straight vs. similar; Lust for Life has shown run against better and drops to the bottom for the first time.

Race 7: Good claimers

Three good veterans race one mile for a $16,000 claim tag in race 7.

Fit to Rule, first off the claim by Peter Miller, has won three straight. When We Met, first off the claim by Vann Belvoir, stretches out following a creditable comeback. Graeme Crackerjack, first off the claim by Phil D’Amato, is in sharp form.

Any of the three principals can win. A pick six bettor using all three would probably survive, unless Cook Inlet returns to form. He seems best on synthetic, however.

Fit to Rule has won three in a row, marching down and up the claiming ladder for a variety of top stables. You’d have to use the 8-5 favorite, right?

When We Met was claimed from his comeback by Belvoir. Since relocating from the Northwest to Southern California, Belvoir is 18 for 81 first off the claim, a 22 percent win rate that has generated a flat-bet profit. When We Met can run long, and five dirt starts produced three runner-up finishes. Absolutely live at 7-2.

Graeme Crackerjack was claimed from a third-place finish by Phil D’Amato, whose assistant is former trainer Mike Mitchell. You remember Mitchell, first off the claim? Always live. Graeme Crackerjack is 9-2.

The pace should be legit. Graeme Crackerjack rolls from behind. That’s three deep, and a lot to spend on a hopefully formful result using three relatively short prices.

Race 8: West Point weekend?

Hobbits Hero seeks his third straight in this $40,000 claiming turf route for 3-year-olds. Number Five is first-time tag. The two principals are evenly matched and logical.

Meanwhile, a “borderline contender” could be second-time gelding Go Black Tie, owned by West Point Thoroughbreds.

If things go right, Belmont Stakes weekend could be huge for West Point. The stable runs Twilight Eclipse in the $200,000 two-mile Belmont Gold Cup Invitational on Friday. That race is the first half of a daily double linked to the Belmont Stakes on Saturday.

The West Point entrant in the Belmont is Commanding Curve, whose runner-up finish in the Kentucky Derby was terrific. It could be a West Point double – Twilight Eclipse on Friday to Commanding Curve on Saturday.

Good luck in the pick six.

Spot plays

Race 4
THEATRE STAR (#2, 7-5) was burned up setting a blazing pace vs. graded stakes foes last out. She drops into an allowance, has been rationing her speed in morning works, and should be gone as a low-odds pick six single.