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Mike Welsch's Kentucky Derby analysis

Nyquist is the obvious choice, coming in undefeated in seven starts, with four Grade 1 wins on his résumé, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. But in what looms as an extremely wide-open race, I must demand a price in the vicinity of 4-1 on this year’s Derby favorite. Outwork has continued to improve with experience, proved his mettle under fire despite contesting an extremely fast pace in the Wood Memorial, and has made the best impression of all the Derby runners since arriving locally. This well-built colt is by Uncle Mo but is out of an Empire Maker mare, which should enhance his chances of staying the distance. He figures to trip out nicely just off the early leaders, and it’s hard to pass up double-digit odds on a horse who is seemingly peaking at just the right time.

Mike WelschMay 04, 2016

Mike Watchmaker's Kentucky Derby analysis

The deep closer Creator might not get the ideal pace setup he received when he won the Arkansas Derby most recently, but he’s still my pick in the Kentucky Derby. Creator improved in dramatic fashion over his last three starts, forging Beyer Speed Figure advancements of nine, 10, and six points to a 96 in the Arkansas Derby. If Creator is able to continue that trend – and by all accounts, he has impressed in his training at Churchill Downs – it certainly would make him fast enough to win. The potential for a moderate pace is a concern, as is the need for a somewhat-clean trip for deep closers like him. But I suspect that with this field, even a moderate Derby pace might fall apart late, and Creator is the closer I prefer.

Mike WatchmakerMay 04, 2016

Brad Free's Kentucky Derby analysis

Brody’s Cause has much in his favor. Among the nation’s elite 2-year-olds last fall when third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, his 3-year-old campaign is picking up steam. His Blue Grass Stakes victory last out was his second Grade 1 win, and it came in only his second start of the year. He’s worked well since and runs as if 1 1/4 miles is within range. The 3-for-6 colt is proven top class, enters with an improving pattern, and offers generous odds. His outside draw (19 of 20) is not an issue with the long run to the first turn.

Brad FreeMay 04, 2016

Mike Beer's Kentucky Derby analysis

This year has been one for fast-paced Derby preps. As one race after another fell apart late on the way to Churchill Downs, more of the tired speeds fell short of the points cutoff. What we are left with is a Derby field that lacks much true early speed. Now, all of a sudden, all those closers who were taking advantage during the prep season might find themselves up against it in the biggest race of their lives.

Mike BeerMay 04, 2016

Free: How I'd play the Oaks-Derby Double

This handicapper’s Oaks-Derby double strategy will insist on an upset in either the Oaks or Derby, preferably both. If program favorites Rachel’s Valentine and Nyquist both win, it will be a losing wager.

Brad FreeMay 04, 2016

Crist: Whittling it down to five contenders

The central question of the 2016 Kentucky Derby is whether Nyquist is simply better than his 19 opponents or a vulnerable favorite in a subpar year. He has pluses and minuses, but is among five horses who will be on my pick-whatever tickets.

Steven CristMay 04, 2016

Derby starters often getting more time between starts

The training charts hang on barn walls, whiteboard wiped clean and rewritten late each morning, and sit in desk drawers, written into ledger books ink-smudged or pristine. The charts record past exercise and sketch the future – the walks, jogs, gallops, and breezes that lead to races.

Marcus HershMay 04, 2016

This time, Repole able to savor Derby experience

Mike Repole had a big smile on his face as he greeted well-wishers and talked with reporters Wednesday morning on the Churchill Downs backstretch. It was a far cry from five years ago, when Repole was avoiding media on the backstretch before a formal press conference was held the day before the 2011 Kentucky Derby to announce the scratch of Uncle Mo, the Repole-owned morning-line favorite.

David GreningMay 04, 2016

Clocker: Nyquist stays busy – and happy

Nyquist hit the track shortly after 7 a.m. and had a busy morning on Wednesday, jogging, visiting the paddock, and schooling in the starting gate under the watchful eye of his trainer, Doug O'Neill, before heading back to his stall in Barn 41.

Mike WelschMay 04, 2016

TVG not authorized to show Churchill's live races

Churchill Downs has not authorized Television Games Network to broadcast the track’s races live on its flagship network or on TVG’s website for this year’s spring meet, an official for TVG said on Wednesday.

Matt HegartyMay 04, 2016

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