More underlays than bargains in Kentucky Derby Future Wager
With the 142nd Kentucky Derby upon us, overlays and underlays abound in the four Derby futures pools that were offered by Churchill Downs in preceding months.
Marty McGeeMay 05, 2016
With the 142nd Kentucky Derby upon us, overlays and underlays abound in the four Derby futures pools that were offered by Churchill Downs in preceding months.
DRF sales editor Joe Nevills analyzes the Kentucky Derby field, in post position order, in the form of Haiku, a Japanese poem of 17 syllables, in three lines of five, seven, and five.
Any horse can get a bad trip from a good post in the Kentucky Derby. Meanwhile, others get lucky. A good trip from a bad post is entirely possible. After all, there is a fair bit of unpredictability when 20 horses scramble for position.
Despite a perfect record of seven wins in seven starts, Nyquist heads into the 142nd Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs as the acknowledged favorite but with plenty of others lining up to try and beat him, notably the owners and trainers of 21 other horses entered in the race, and the many bettors who are likely to find appeal in many of the 19 others who will run against Nyquist.
Bob Baffert didn't walk away after American Pharoah retired, didn't say “Baffert out” following the Triple Crown. No, one year after training American Pharoah to the first Triple Crown sweep in 37 years, Baffert has taken up his familiar spot preceding the first Saturday in May, Barn 33 at Churchill Downs, where on Saturday, for the 17th time in his career, he will try to win the Kentucky Derby.
Mom and Dad will be here. So will the three sisters and some of their kids and other family members – or a fair percentage of the population of Vermilion Parish, Louisiana. “This isn't just for me and Keith and the family,” said Kent Desormeaux, the Hall of Fame jockey who will ride Exaggerator for his older brother, trainer Keith Desormeaux, in the 142nd Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs. “It's for Cajun pride. This is huge.”
Because there is no prior form to help judge who will have something left in the tank for that last eighth of a mile in the Kentucky Derby, a useful tool to help determine each horse's distance potential is the average winning distance of his sire and dam's progeny.
Four years after Gutierrez rode I'll Have Another to an upset victory in the Kentucky Derby for owners Paul and Zillah Reddam and trainer Doug O'Neill, the 31-year-old is back for the same owners and trainer with Nyquist, the undefeated champion 2-year-old male of 2015.
The unbeaten champion Nyquist drew post 13 and was installed as the 3-1 morning-line favorite when the field was drawn and post positions established for Saturday’s 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
Nyquist, last year’s 2-year-old male champion, is the classiest horse in the Kentucky Derby and the likely winner. He has not run lofty speed figures or turned in particularly flashy workouts, but in seven starts, he has always found a way to win. He has exhibited the versatility to win on the lead, from a pace-pressing position, and even from as far back as eighth, as he did in taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year when hung wide in a scramble into the first turn. He also has beaten several notable Kentucky Derby contenders, such as Exaggerator, Mohaymen, and Brody’s Cause.