Byron King's Kentucky Derby analysis
1. Nyquist
2. Exaggerator
3. Suddenbreakingnews
4. Outwork
Nyquist, last year’s 2-year-old male champion, is the classiest horse in the Kentucky Derby and the likely winner. He has not run lofty speed figures or turned in particularly flashy workouts, but in seven starts, he has always found a way to win. He has exhibited the versatility to win on the lead, from a pace-pressing position, and even from as far back as eighth, as he did in taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year when hung wide in a scramble into the first turn. He also has beaten several notable Kentucky Derby contenders, such as Exaggerator, Mohaymen, and Brody’s Cause.
Nyquist also drew well in post 13, a position from which he ought to be able to sit a favorable stalking trip in a Derby that appears likely to unfold with a moderate pace.
Exaggerator owns the top last-race Beyer Speed Figure, a 103 in winning the Santa Anita Derby, but that race came over a sloppy track and with a hot pace that fueled his stretch rally. So, regression from that figure appears likely provided the racetrack is fast. Yet even if he reverts to some of his prior Beyers – such as when he ran a 96 when third in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes or a 98 when second in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes – he still ranks as one of the fastest horses in what appears to be a slow 3-year-old crop.
The late-running Suddenbreakingnews is a live longshot to use in the gimmicks. He consistently performed well in his races at Oaklawn this winter and should relish the stretch-out to 1 1/4 miles in the Derby. In a race inundated with closers, he is going to need some breaks at the back of the pack in order to work out a trip that gives him a chance.
Outwork is the preferred of two principal speed horses, with the other logical front-runner being Danzing Candy. Outwork has trained well leading up to the Derby, and though he only narrowly won the Wood Memorial in his final prep, he did so after being part of a taxing early pace.
If by chance Danzing Candy does not break well and show speed, he becomes even more dangerous, though that scenario appears improbable since Danzing Candy is drawn in the clear in post 20.