Kentucky Derby angles: Brad Free on post position

Any horse can get a bad trip from a good post in the Kentucky Derby. Meanwhile, others get lucky. A good trip from a bad post is entirely possible. After all, there is a fair bit of unpredictability when 20 horses scramble for position.

But the post-position draw for the 2016 Derby was weird because the field is separated by running style. The draw is random, yet most speed horses, notably Danzing Candy, Outwork, and also-eligible first preference Laoban, drew outside in the auxiliary gate.

Most deep closers such as contenders Creator, Mo Tom, and My Man Sam are drawn toward the inside. It is as if there are two races – one for speed horses drawn outside, and another for closers drawn inside.

The influence of post position on pace is speculative. This handicapper believes Danzing Candy’s outside draw (20) could slow the tempo because he will not need to be rushed in order to establish position.

Others speculate that Danzing Candy’s outside draw will have the opposite effect, because Danzing Candy must be used early to establish position and avoid being caught wide. In that case, the tempo would quicken.

Outwork (15) has speed; he was positioned one-two in all four starts. He will be forwardly placed. And the manner Mor Spirit (17) trained at Churchill Downs produced a potential eye-opener. Daily Racing Form clocker Mike Welsch speculated “a keen Mor Spirit may become more of a pace factor in the Derby that one might have originally expected.”

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And if any of the main entrants scratch, also-eligible front-runner Laoban (21) will draw in. At that point, the likelihood of a quick pace increases dramatically.

Why address pace in a handicapping column about post? Because the two are intertwined. In a fast-pace race, the field often gets strung out with less likelihood that post position will make a difference. In a slow-pace race, the field can bunch and traffic problems increase. Horses without speed, unable to establish position inside, often are shuffled out the back.

With that in mind, here is a horse-by-horse look at the potential impact of post position in the 2016 Kentucky Derby.

1 – Trojan Nation: A maiden with no speed, he is one of the aforementioned closers drawn inside. Not a good post. It has been 30 years since post 1 produced a Derby winner. That was Ferdinand in 1986.

2 – Suddenbreakingnews: The deep closer is trained by Donnie Von Hemel, who addressed the draw with Churchill Downs publicity: “He’s surrounded by horses with similar running styles and shouldn’t get shuffled back. He should be able to get comfortable from there.”

3 – Creator: Same as the two horses on his inside and another on his outside, Creator will be at the back. It is unfortunate, but likely, that one of those in posts 1-4 will take the worst of it and get shuffled back farther than expected.

4 – Mo Tom: He drew best of the four inside runners, with less likelihood of being squeezed. Trainer Tom Amoss told Churchill Downs: “I think the two most significant things about the draw are we drew toward the rail but not so close that it's a problem, and that there's a lot of speed way on the outside in this post-position draw. Those horses are going to have to be used out of the starting gate, and that I think will ensure a good pace, which is what we need.”

5 – Gun Runner: This is a good draw for the stalker. The four horses to his inside have zero speed, nor does the horse to his outside. He “should” get a good trip in the early part of the race.

6 – My Man Sam: He has no early speed, yet is drawn outside other closers and therefore less likely to be shuffled. This is a good draw for the lightly raced (four starts) contender.

7 – Oscar Nominated: A synthetic-surface/turf specialist, he is likely to be outrun early and probably will stay there. Post hardly matters for a 50-1 shot that has little chance to win. One thing that does matter is who he is drawn alongside.

8 – Lani: The Japanese-based winner of the UAE Derby has a reputation of being goofy. If he throws a wingding in the gate, which is more likely with him than others, you probably wouldn’t want to be in the next stall.\

9 – Destin: Another good draw by a horse with tactical speed to out-foot the closers to his inside and outside. But it is a potentially bad draw considering his neighbor, as trainer Todd Pletcher noted: “The only thing that concerns me is the horse inside Destin [Lani]. I have some concern about that horse acting up.”

10 – Whitmore: He is a closer in the middle of the pack, which is fine. Post 10 produced a higher percentage of winners (11.4 percent) than any post since the starting gate was first used in the Derby in 1930. That stat is skewed however, by good horses that started from post 10 such as Sunday Silence, Spend a Buck, and Secretariat.

11 – Exaggerator: Jockey Kent Desormeaux expressed concern he must wait some time for the break after being loaded. As for his projected trip, closers drawn in the middle of a big field should have fewer concerns.

12 – Tom’s Ready: A midpack position is expected, from a neutral post. No problems, at least going in.

13 – Nyquist: He has speed, but is tactical. The challenge is that he is drawn inside the other front-runners. Jockey Mario Gutierrez must decide early whether to go on and risk a duel, or take back and risk losing position. Post 13 is an okay post. What is not okay is being drawn inside the other speed. A preferred post would be outside, such as 2012 Derby winner I’ll Have Another, the horse Gutierrez rode to victory from post 19.

14 – Mohaymen: The last horse in the main gate means less time standing in the gate after being loaded. He should be forwardly placed right behind the speed. Going into the race, the post is fine.

15 – Outwork: The first horse in the auxiliary gate, barring a scratch that would move him to the main gate, Outwork is quick and is likely to either make the lead or press the pace set by Danzing Candy. This is a good post for a good horse getting better. And it’s only been one year since post 15 produced a Derby winner – American Pharoah.

16 – Shagaf: Good post for the stalker, because the horses to his inside and outside are quicker and likely to clear him early. Trainer Chad Brown had good reason to be satisfied with an outside draw. He told Churchill Downs: “We were looking for something on the outside with Shagaf with as big as he is so he’ll stay out of trouble.”

17 – Mor Spirit: Based on his workouts, Mor Spirit is expected to show speed and possibly sit third behind the early leaders. If the tempo slows excessively, jockey Gary Stevens could seize control. The post is fine, despite a statistical aberration. Post 17 is 0 for 37.

18 – Majesto: A midpack stalker drawn near the outside, this post is fine.

19 – Brody’s Cause: The outside post will not get him beat, assuming the field spreads out into the first turn and he tucks in without losing much ground. Quote from trainer Dale Romans: “At first, I was a little bit disappointed, but after looking at the draw with the speed [Danzing Candy] outside of us, we’ll let him clear.” The last horse to win from post 19 was I’ll Have Another only four years ago.

20 – Danzing Candy: A speed horse, he has options from the outside. He can go on with it, or press. The outside post draw always elicits gasps from observers, unnecessarily so. Quote from trainer Cliff Sise: “At first, you're kind of stunned when they say 20, but when you start thinking about it, it’s not that bad. It’s better than the one-hole, especially for a speed horse – he can come over very gradually and he won’t sit in the gate long. Actually, it might be in our favor. We’re outside of any other speed horse, so we’ll take it.” Big Brown won from post 20 in 2008.

21 – Laoban: If this also-eligible front-runner draws in, the pace dynamics change, increasing the likelihood of a fast pace.

22 – Cherry Wine: A deep-closing also-eligible, this post makes little difference.

Post time for the 2016 Kentucky Derby is 6:34 p.m. Eastern.