Brad Free's Kentucky Derby analysis
1. Brody’s Cause
2. Exaggerator
3. Nyquist
4. Outwork
Brody’s Cause has much in his favor. Among the nation’s elite 2-year-olds last fall when third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, his 3-year-old campaign is picking up steam. His Blue Grass Stakes victory last out was his second Grade 1 win, and it came in only his second start of the year. He’s worked well since and runs as if 1 1/4 miles is within range. The 3-for-6 colt is proven top class, enters with an improving pattern, and offers generous odds. His outside draw (19 of 20) is not an issue with the long run to the first turn.
Exaggerator benefitted from a fast pace and a wet surface last time, winning by more than six lengths with a field-high 103 Beyer Speed Figure, and it was no fluke. Exaggerator also runs on “fast.” He is repeatedly proven in graded company (three wins, two seconds, and a third in seven graded stakes), was top class last year as a 2-year-old, and is an improved colt this year. The seasoned (nine starts) closer is undeniably qualified for the Derby.
Nyquist is undefeated after seven starts, including the BC Juvenile, in which he defeated the top two choices despite an impossibly wide trip. Nyquist has won both of his starts this year, is exceptionally versatile, and will be in contention turning for home. It is uncertain whether he can handle 1 1/4 miles, but that is true for the entire field. The knock on Nyquist is odds. He is expected to start favored.
Outwork was fully extended to win a low-rated Wood Memorial but reportedly has trained super since then and enters as a dangerous horse with an improving pattern. He should run the best race of his career.
Mor Spirit did not care for the wet track in the Santa Anita Derby but still finished second as the favorite. First or second all seven starts, he should move up on “fast.”
Danzing Candy is likely to set the pace and therefore has an upset chance. I like the outside post. Creator developed rapidly this spring. He needed six starts to win his maiden and then won a Grade 1 two starts later. A good horse getting better.
Tom’s Ready will pick up the pieces; his trainer finished second with Derby longshots in 2013 and 2014. My Man Sam finished second behind top choice Brody’s Cause last out, so he has a shot. Destin earned a big figure in defeating two next-out Grade 1 winners at Tampa Bay Downs, but that was his most recent start eight weeks ago. That’s a long break into the Derby.