Free: How I'd play the Oaks-Derby Double

Even if favorites Rachel’s Valentina and Nyquist both win, which seems unlikely, the Oaks-Derby double almost certainly will pay more than the past two years.

One year ago, fifth choice Lovely Maria and favorite American Pharoah combined for a $1 payoff of $27.30. That was big compared to a year earlier, when favorites Untapable and California Chrome combined for a $1 payoff of $5.70, the lowest in 15 years.

The minimum bet for the Oaks-Derby double is $1; recent pools averaged nearly $2.5 million.

The highest Oaks-Double payoff was 2002 when 20-1 outsiders Farda Amiga and War Emblem combined for a $2 payoff of $1,395.40. On the other end of the spectrum, including 2014, the Oaks-Derby double comprised both favorites four times (see chart at bottom of story).

What will happen in 2016? How to play?

This handicapper’s Oaks-Derby double strategy will insist on an upset in either the Oaks or Derby, preferably both. If program favorites Rachel’s Valentine and Nyquist both win, it will be a losing wager.

Terra Promessa (1) is the Oaks top choice at 10-1. Her form is clouded by the narrow margin of her win last time out. Odds-on in the Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes, Terra Promessa was under restraint most of the race, fought back when hooked in the lane, and won by a neck. She is better than the race indicates. She has won four in a row.

Lewis Bay (3) is second preference at 8-1. Her last-out win was more impressive than the 1 1/2-length margin. Since arriving in Kentucky, she reportedly has thrived.

Oaks favorites Rachel’s Valentina (11) and Land Over Sea (13) will be included only on backup tickets to a pair of Derby longshots.

Brody’s Cause (19) is the Derby top choice at 12-1. He is an established Grade 1 winner in peak form, with big workouts going in.

Exaggerator (11) is second preference at 8-1. He benefitted from a fast pace and wet track winning Santa Anita Derby in a romp, but he also acts on fast.

Nyquist (13) and Outwork (15) will be used only as savers from the Oaks keys.

Here is how to put it together for $20, on three tickets, with a chance of hitting once or three times.

$1 Oaks-Derby double = $20 total
Terra Promessa (1), Lewis Bay (3) to Exaggerator (11), Brody’s Cause (19) = $4
Terra Promessa (1), Lewis Bay (3) to Exaggerator (11), Nyquist (13), Outwork (15) Brody’s Cause (19), = $8
Terra Promessa (1), Lewis Bay (3), Rachel’s Valentine (11), Land Over Sea (13) to Exaggerator (11), Brody’s Cause (19) = $8

Numbers only (same as above, $20 total):
1, 3 with 11, 19 = $4
1, 3 with 11, 13, 15, 19 = $8
1, 3, 11, 13 with 11, 19 = $8

Oaks-Derby double history (2001-2015)
(Oaks $2 payoff + Derby $2 payoff = Oaks-Derby double $2 payoff)

2015: Lovely Maria $14.60 + American Pharoah $7.80 (favorite) = $54.60
2014: Untapable $4 (favorite) + California Chrome $7 (favorite) = $11.40
2013: Princess of Sylmar $79.60 + Orb $12.80 (favorite) = $621.40
2012: Believe You Can $29.60 + I’ll Have Another $32.60 = $731.20
2011: Plum Pretty $14.60 + Animal Kingdom $43.80 = $345.60
2010: Blind Luck $4.60 (favorite) + Super Saver $18 = $56.60
2009: Rachel Alexandra $2.60 (favorite) + Mine That Bird $103.20 = $237.40
2008: Proud Spell $8.80 (favorite) + Big Brown $6.80 (favorite) = $37.80
2007: Rags to Riches $5 (favorite) + Street Sense $11.80 (favorite) = $23.80
2006: Lemons Forever $96.20 + Barbaro $14.20 = $890.20
2005: Summerly $11.20 + Giacomo $102.60 = $595.20
2004: Ashado $6.60 (favorite) + Smarty Jones $10.20 (favorite) = $60.20
2003: Bird Town $38.40 + Funny Cide $27.60 = $421.80
2002: Farda Amiga $42 + War Emblem $43 = $1,395.40
2001: Flute $8.60 + Monarchos $23 = $79.20