Mike Beer's Kentucky Derby analysis
1. Shagaf
2. Nyquist
3. Mor Spirit
4. Outwork
This year has been one for fast-paced Derby preps. As one race after another fell apart late on the way to Churchill Downs, more of the tired speeds fell short of the points cutoff. What we are left with is a Derby field that lacks much true early speed. Now, all of a sudden, all those closers who were taking advantage during the prep season might find themselves up against it in the biggest race of their lives.
Due to that apparent lack of pace, I want a horse who can take up a spot within range as the field makes its way through the stretch for the first time. Shagaf has his drawbacks as a Kentucky Derby horse, but he also has some ability to go along with plenty of upside, and he will be a price. While his final prep in the Wood Memorial has been widely viewed as a disappointment, he seemed to be the one horse to really struggle with the muddy track that day. After briefly leveling off with a run exiting the backstretch, Shagaf hit some traffic and then never regained his momentum, stopping in the stretch to finish fourth. He remains one of the few horses in this Derby field for whom I can hold out hope that we have not seen nearly his best race yet, and with the Wood Memorial quite literally muddying the waters on him, he may be a forgotten horse Saturday.
Despite being an undefeated 2-year-old champion and one of the fastest horses in a division that is slow overall, Nyquist is the Derby favorite everyone is trying to beat. Perhaps the distance will be his undoing, but it is difficult to get behind the idea that Nyquist doesn’t hold an edge on this field on the way into the starting gate. He owns a handy running style that allows him to be placed anywhere in a race, he has proven to be a game fighter in the stretch, and he has not only proven that he can take his race on the road, but the two times they have shipped him have resulted in arguably the two best races of his career. He is a must-use for me.
Mor Spirit has given the impression of being a bit of a lazy horse since returning this year, but the talent appears to be there, and this Grade 1-winning 2-year-old could be sitting on a breakthrough race for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Gary Stevens. He is another who can be within range of the pace, and I think the distance may work better for him than several others in this field.
Despite having just four races behind him, Outwork is a little overexposed as a Derby horse for my liking. He clearly is a talent, and while giving Shagaf credit for a Wood Memorial that I liked overall, I have to acknowledge that this horse ran the best race that day while fighting on a strong pace. The question is whether he can move forward one more time and do so without the benefit of having the early lead, which he is unlikely to get Saturday. He is a major contender but one who feels like an underlay.