Mike Watchmaker's Kentucky Derby analysis
1. Creator
2. Mor Spirit
3. Danzing Candy
4. Nyquist
The deep closer Creator might not get the ideal pace setup he received when he won the Arkansas Derby most recently, but he’s still my pick in the Kentucky Derby. Creator improved in dramatic fashion over his last three starts, forging Beyer Speed Figure advancements of nine, 10, and six points to a 96 in the Arkansas Derby. If Creator is able to continue that trend – and by all accounts, he has impressed in his training at Churchill Downs – it certainly would make him fast enough to win. The potential for a moderate pace is a concern, as is the need for a somewhat-clean trip for deep closers like him. But I suspect that with this field, even a moderate Derby pace might fall apart late, and Creator is the closer I prefer.
Mor Spirit is very dangerous. I don’t think Mor Spirit handled the slop when second in the Santa Anita Derby. Moreover, he took a lot of kickback into the first turn and was close to a destructive early pace. Mor Spirit also had a trip when an educational second in the San Felipe Stakes two starts back. Mor Spirit should get first run on deep closers such as Creator and might capitalize on that.
Danzing Candy went much too fast early in the Santa Anita Derby and gave way late, but he beat Mor Spirit two starts back in the San Felipe after setting a strong pace that was comparable to the Santa Anita Handicap pace on the same card. Danzing Candy is loose on the lead here if Laoban doesn’t draw in from the also-eligible list and could take this group deep.
The undefeated Nyquist is a deserving favorite. He projects to pull a sweet pace-stalking trip, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won. But Nyquist is a poor bet as the favorite, with a pedigree that does not shout 1 1/4 miles and with two-turn Beyers that are just not as good as several others in this race.
Exaggerator would be a handful if able to duplicate his big-figure Santa Anita Derby score, but that’s a big if. Handicappers know to be skeptical of big figures earned in the slop, especially on a different surface next time. Exaggerator is unlikely to catch slop again Saturday, and he won’t get the same favorable pace setup he got at Santa Anita.
Mohaymen had one bad day in his entire life and is much better than his dull fourth to Nyquist in the Florida Derby suggests. But it’s hard to rebound big time in the Derby.
Gun Runner has talent but had perfect trips in winning his last two and yet still earned only soft Beyers.