Mike Welsch's Kentucky Derby analysis
1. Outwork
2. Creator
3. Nyquist
4. Suddenbreakingnews
Nyquist is the obvious choice, coming in undefeated in seven starts, with four Grade 1 wins on his résumé, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. But in what looms as an extremely wide-open race, I must demand a price in the vicinity of 4-1 on this year’s Derby favorite. Outwork has continued to improve with experience, proved his mettle under fire despite contesting an extremely fast pace in the Wood Memorial, and has made the best impression of all the Derby runners since arriving locally. This well-built colt is by Uncle Mo but is out of an Empire Maker mare, which should enhance his chances of staying the distance. He figures to trip out nicely just off the early leaders, and it’s hard to pass up double-digit odds on a horse who is seemingly peaking at just the right time.
Creator also has made a great impression here over the past two weeks and continues to improve from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint. He appears to be sitting on another big one, the main caveat being his ability to work out a clean trip from well back in this bulky field, especially if the leaders get to dawdling up front.
Nyquist is strictly the one to beat. I couldn’t have been more impressed with the way he overcame adversity in winning the BC Juvenile last fall despite a brutal trip, and he’s given every indication that he’s maintaining his top form in the weeks leading up to the race. He’s another who figures to sit in perfect position right behind the leaders, and it may simply be a matter of whether he can stay the added ground.
Suddenbreakingnews, like Creator, exits a career-best effort in the Arkansas Derby from a Beyer standpoint and has looked very sharp in preparing for this race. He too will have to find a few seams and get a few breaks, but he should come running late at a very square price.
Shagaf gets a mulligan for his performance in the Wood Memorial, considering the slow start and muddy track. This lightly raced colt has been extremely impressive while training over this track, and I expect him to outrun his odds with a little racing luck.
Exaggerator comes off a huge performance in the Santa Anita Derby, the question being how much the perfect trip and wet track contributed to that effort. There’s no denying that he’ll be a major player if able to bring that same game to the table on dry land on Derby Day.
Whitmore is another of the Arkansas Derby alumnus who has continued to improve with experience. He’s doing well and must be respected at a juicy price.