Something remarkable happened in the 2015 Kentucky Derby: The horses who occupied the first three positions after a quarter-mile of the race, Dortmund, Firing Line, and American Pharoah, were the first three horses to cross the finish line.
There should be some giant pools at Churchill Downs over the weekend, and the special Kentucky Oaks/Woodford Reserve Turf Classic/Kentucky Derby pick three looks interesting. I’ll play TicketMaker and hope to beat a favorite or two.
Races 8 through 11 Saturday at Churchill Downs – the Humana Distaff, the American Turf, the Pat Day Mile, and the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic – the four stakes that immediately precede the Kentucky Derby, are especially intriguing to me from a betting standpoint.
Any horse can get a bad trip from a good post in the Kentucky Derby. Meanwhile, others get lucky. A good trip from a bad post is entirely possible. After all, there is a fair bit of unpredictability when 20 horses scramble for position.
Nyquist, last year’s 2-year-old male champion, is the classiest horse in the Kentucky Derby and the likely winner. He has not run lofty speed figures or turned in particularly flashy workouts, but in seven starts, he has always found a way to win. He has exhibited the versatility to win on the lead, from a pace-pressing position, and even from as far back as eighth, as he did in taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year when hung wide in a scramble into the first turn. He also has beaten several notable Kentucky Derby contenders, such as Exaggerator, Mohaymen, and Brody’s Cause.
Nyquist is the obvious choice, coming in undefeated in seven starts, with four Grade 1 wins on his résumé, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. But in what looms as an extremely wide-open race, I must demand a price in the vicinity of 4-1 on this year’s Derby favorite. Outwork has continued to improve with experience, proved his mettle under fire despite contesting an extremely fast pace in the Wood Memorial, and has made the best impression of all the Derby runners since arriving locally. This well-built colt is by Uncle Mo but is out of an Empire Maker mare, which should enhance his chances of staying the distance. He figures to trip out nicely just off the early leaders, and it’s hard to pass up double-digit odds on a horse who is seemingly peaking at just the right time.
The deep closer Creator might not get the ideal pace setup he received when he won the Arkansas Derby most recently, but he’s still my pick in the Kentucky Derby. Creator improved in dramatic fashion over his last three starts, forging Beyer Speed Figure advancements of nine, 10, and six points to a 96 in the Arkansas Derby. If Creator is able to continue that trend – and by all accounts, he has impressed in his training at Churchill Downs – it certainly would make him fast enough to win. The potential for a moderate pace is a concern, as is the need for a somewhat-clean trip for deep closers like him. But I suspect that with this field, even a moderate Derby pace might fall apart late, and Creator is the closer I prefer.
Brody’s Cause has much in his favor. Among the nation’s elite 2-year-olds last fall when third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, his 3-year-old campaign is picking up steam. His Blue Grass Stakes victory last out was his second Grade 1 win, and it came in only his second start of the year. He’s worked well since and runs as if 1 1/4 miles is within range. The 3-for-6 colt is proven top class, enters with an improving pattern, and offers generous odds. His outside draw (19 of 20) is not an issue with the long run to the first turn.
This year has been one for fast-paced Derby preps. As one race after another fell apart late on the way to Churchill Downs, more of the tired speeds fell short of the points cutoff. What we are left with is a Derby field that lacks much true early speed. Now, all of a sudden, all those closers who were taking advantage during the prep season might find themselves up against it in the biggest race of their lives.
This handicapper’s Oaks-Derby double strategy will insist on an upset in either the Oaks or Derby, preferably both. If program favorites Rachel’s Valentine and Nyquist both win, it will be a losing wager.
