Dunleavy: Churchill Downs pick four for middle of Derby card

While the pick four on races 5-8 at Churchill Downs on Saturday includes the Distaff Turf Mile, in which Tepin likely will go off at 1-5 or 2-5, the other three races are competitive enough to make a play possible. And, yes, I will throw in a "B" horse in the Distaff Turf Mile on the odd chance that Tepin doesn’t run her race or encounters a traffic jam.

Here is a $52 play. The ticket is set up to let a "B" horse win in one leg of the sequence. All tickets are in 50-cent increments.

Race 5

This second-level optional race at 1 1/16 miles is confusing. Most of the runners in the full field have been at this level for a while or are in for the optional claiming price of $62,500. The most likely speed horses seem to be the longshots Obsidian Splendor and Salengo, and it's hard to imagine either of them being around at the finish. I'm going to spread and hope to stay alive.

Bold Conquest fits at this level. Commanding Curve is 5-2-1 at Churchill and 10-0-0-1 elsewhere. Gotham News was entered in the Grade 3, $200,000 Texas Mile at Lone Star Park on Friday but runs here instead.

As: Bold Conquest (2), Commanding Curve (9), Freestyler (10), Gotham News (12)
Bs: Allied Air Raid (3), Hesinfront (4), Flatlined (5)

Race 6

Tepin, one of the top horses in the country, has won five straight races and appears to lay over the field in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile. If you want to single her, you most likely are safe. I am going to add the front-running Isabella Sings on the off chance that Tepin doesn’t fire.

A: Tepin (1)
B: Isabella Sings (4)

Race 7

The nine-horse Churchill Downs Stakes is a terrific race with an evenly matched field. I am going to try to skate through using four "A" horses, even though this means not using the two Californians, Kobe's Back and Calculator.

I think Limousine Liberal is on course to become one of the elite sprinters in the country, and this could be his breakout race. Speightster is very talented but was trapped at Payson Park during a quarantine and hasn’t raced since last year. Still, I don’t see why he can’t fire fresh. Holy Boss, off a five-month layoff, went too fast on the lead in the Commonwealth at Keeneland before losing a photo for second. Expect a better performance Saturday. Salutos Amigos is freaky-good right now. The question is whether he can duplicate his recent efforts outside of New York.

As: Limousine Liberal (5), Speightster (6), Holy Boss (7), Salutos Amigos (8)

Race 8

The Grade 1 Humana Distaff, at seven furlongs, is not an easy race, but I have always thought that Stonetastic has Grade 1 ability, and this is a good opportunity for her to prove it. She runs very well fresh and comes into this off back-to-back wins and a seven-week break.

Taris is amazingly versatile and has made her last two starts going long at Santa Anita. I like the turnback in distance here. She should finish strong. Wavell Avenue's first start of the season, a third in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland, was quite good. I'll use the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner as a "B."

As: Stonetastic (2), Taris (8)
B: Wavell Avenue (10)

Here are the tickets:
All As: 2, 9, 10, 12 / 1 / 5, 6, 7, 8 / 2, 8 = $16
Using B horses in first leg: 3, 4, 5 / 1 / 5, 6, 7, 8 / 2, 8 = $12
Using B horse in second leg: 2, 9, 10, 12 / 4 / 5, 6, 7, 8 / 2, 8 = $16
Using B horse in fourth leg: 2, 9, 10, 12 / 1 / 5, 6, 7, 8 / 10 = $8
Total: $52

:: See Jim Dunleavy's pick four ticket in DRF TicketMaker.