King: Churchill Downs late pick four for Derby Day
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLEWith huge fields over the final four races Saturday at Churchill, the late pick four offers the chance for a blow-up payoff. Here is a look at the sequence, which begins with the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic, race 11, and finishes with a maiden race at 1 1/8 miles, and a TicketMaker play follows the text.
An important note: Keep an eye on the forecast. There is a chance of scattered storms in the late afternoon and early evening.
Race 11, Woodford Reserve
Tourist (10) gets a narrow edge, having exhibited plenty of class and having a race this year, but one can’t look past the classy Big Blue Kitten (12) either. The latter was the champion turf horse last year and is proven fresh. Both are ‘A’ runners on my TicketMaker ticket. Still, there are numerous others in here with fighting chances. So, I will back them up with a trio of ‘B’ horses in Slumber (6), Grand Tito (1), and Bolo (2) – with those runners listed in order of preference.
Race 12, Kentucky Derby
Nyquist (13) and Exaggerator (11) are the two best horses and are ‘A’ plays, but unfortunately, that is how the public is betting the race as well. So, I will toss a few ‘B’ horses on the tickets, knowing they offer the chance to really sweeten the potential payoff. They are Suddenbreakingnews (2), Outwork (15), and Creator (3).
Race 13, optional claimer
Smart Moon (6), coming off a runner-up finish at Keeneland last month, won a maiden race over the Churchill strip last year and should maintain his sharp form. He is the lone ‘A.’ Uncle Walter (6) and Sonoma Crush (5) also have the ability to win, though they’re coming off subpar races – hence why they are ‘B’ horses.
Race 14, maiden special weight
Race Me Home (3), my only ‘A,’ is an interesting runner in the nightcap, coming off a surprisingly strong Beyer Speed Figure when fourth at Keeneland, and he’s bred to stretch out in distance to 1 1/8 miles. If by chance he doesn’t run as well as expected, this race becomes wide open. So, there are the ‘B’ horses I’d advise using, in order of preference: Virtual Machine (7), Hint of Roses (1), Conquest War Cry (4), and Forever d’Oro (6).
The TicketMaker play
Plugging the above-mentioned horses into TicketMaker, for $98.50, an all-‘A’ ticket can be played for $1.50, any combination of three ‘A’ horses and ‘B’ for $1, and two ‘A’ horses and two ‘B’ runners for 50 cents.