Bernier: Churchill Downs pick five for Kentucky Derby Day

Kentucky Derby Day is annually one of the most anticipated wagering days on a horseplayer's calendar. Full fields with relatively evenly matched horses present the horseplayer with numerous wagering opportunities. Of all the wagers that are offered on Derby Saturday, the pick five may be the best – a wager that concludes with the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby.

RACE 8 – HUMANA DISTAFF

BIRDATTHEWIRE (9) ran a creditable race in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland in her most recent start, but today may be the day she breaks through in a big way. The pace in the Humana Distaff looks as though it could be electric – a scenario that would play right into the hands of this Dale Romans trainee. Mike Smith has the mount on this 4-year-old filly, and she should give a good account of herself here.

RACE 9 – AMERICAN TURF

CONVERGE (3) didn't have the cleanest of trips in his most recent start April 8, and if he's able to avoid trouble today, he'll likely make his presence felt. His first start as a 3-year-old proved that he's a tremendously talented runner. However, he did almost get himself into some significant trouble that day. Avoiding traffic will be paramount for him here. BEACH PATROL (4) has been fantastic against weaker in Southern California for Phil D'Amato, and today he'll get the ultimate acid test against some solid turfers. His ability to win from on the lead or from off the pace makes him a major threat. SHAKHIMAT (8) looked very impressive in winning the Transylvania in front-running fashion. However, his changing back to his left lead late is a bit worrisome. There's no denying his talent, but he'll likely need to be more professional today if he's to emerge victorious.

RACE 10 – PAT DAY MILE

SHARP AZTECA (6) has looked outstanding in each of his two most recent starts against lesser, and while he'll face a stiff test in this spot, visually, he's done nothing wrong and deserves consideration. But it's hard to get away from the buzz surrounding the Bob Baffert entrant, AMERICAN FREEDOM (11). His debut on a sloppy track at Santa Anita was very professional, and Baffert has gone on record saying that he believes this could be his horse for the Haskell at Monmouth in a few months. If this horse lives up to the hype, he'll likely prove too much to handle here – and may prove too much for the rest of the top 3-year-olds down the line.

RACE 11 – TURF CLASSIC

BOLO (3) ran better than his page will suggest in the Kilroe Mile considering the condition of the turf course, and a rebound to a top effort would hardly be a surprise. It would also be reasonable to anticipate he'll revert to his forward running style on the heels of his off-the-pace effort March 12. DIVISIDERO (8) comes into this race sitting on a big effort – the additional ground he'll get to work with should do wonders, and the pace scenario should fit his late-running style. The concern for him comes down to price; it seems highly improbable that he'll go off anywhere near his 15-1 morning line. WORLD APPROVAL (11) is another runner in this salty contest who appears to be sitting on a top effort. His ability to adapt to any pace scenario will always make him a player, and his most recent effort at Fair Grounds is likely better than it appears simply because he didn't have much pace to run at.

RACE 12 – KENTUCKY DERBY

I believe there are 15 horses who could emerge victorious, but I obviously can't use them all here. SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (2) is one of the most consistent runners in this field, and I'm hopeful that the addition of a shadow roll will keep him slightly closer than he's been in the past. The 10 furlongs should work to his advantage, and if he's able to start his run from 15 lengths out of it rather than 20, there's a chance he'll get up in time. CREATOR (3) is another who figures to be rolling late, and he'll also be at the mercy of pace. If things are soft on the front end, each of these runners likely will be compromised in a big way. If there's an honest pace, look for each of these horses to be hitting their best stride while everyone else is laboring. I may not love him, but NYQUIST (13) hasn't done anything wrong in his career, and he may simply be the best horse in the race. I'd be foolish not to use him in a wager such as this.

THE PLAY

50-cent pick five: 9 / 3,4,8 / 6,11 / 3,8,11 / 2,3,13 = $27