Small fields to start the card make finding plays difficult, but a couple of horses later on the card have some appeal and give options for in-race and multi-race wagers.
The card Saturday at Santa Anita includes apparent standouts in the first and last legs of the pick five on races 1-5. With a pair of singles, the pick five (50-cent minimum, 14 percent takeout) looks affordable even for small bettors.
The longer the distance, the more class emerges – or so the theory goes. That means Unitarian or Reflecting should win the inaugural Allen Jerkens Stakes (race 9), and we’ll make them the keys in a late pick four (races 8-11).
BreezeFigs Quick-Pix for Saturday, January 31st by Bob Fierro and Jay Kilgore.
Let’s say you’re a speed bettor – a handicapper who likes to play front-runners – and you’re analyzing the card at Fair Grounds. There are a few routes on the day, and you’re starting to zero in on your plays.
Trainer stats don’t always tell us if a horse is more likely to outrun its odds or be overbet. Typically, a trainer might have a win rate of between 12 and 18 percent and a return on investment in the $1.50 to $1.80 range for the angles that apply to the horse entered. But occasionally certain trainers have what I like to call a “power move,” an angle where they have been markedly more successful than their baseline. Today’s column will just look at a handful of “Bet This” moves in this area.
In the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, I’m going with My Johnny Be Good, whose only outings on dirt in his last two starts were a decided cut above good efforts on Polytrack in his first two starts.
I was fairly certain Upstart was going to run really well in last Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes. Any 2-year-old that can get a 102 Beyer in his third start and run well in all four starts on both coasts is dangerous. The horse ran even better than I imagined, blowing away a pretty solid field to win by 5 1/2 lengths, earning a 105 Beyer. Don’t think we will be seeing him in New York-bred races any time soon. Upstart is a serious Kentucky Derby contender. Frosted was second in the Holy Bull and improved on his Remsen number by six points, going from an 89 to a 95.
Mary Rampellini's Horses to Watch at Oaklawn Park for the week of Jan. 26.
Dave Litfin's horses to watch at Aqueduct for the week of Jan. 26.
