Santa Anita

Bernier: How I'd play Santa Anita for Sunday, Feb. 1

Matt Bernier|Jan 31, 2015

The Super Bowl Sunday card at Santa Anita is highlighted by the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes, which features the return of 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion Texas Red. The San Vicente will be a race I will look to play, as well as the early double on the card.

RACES 1 and 2

A bottom-rung claiming event kicks things off, and I will be using three runners here – all of them trying to beat the morning-line favorite Qatar’s Pearl. MIND THE MASTER (2) got dusted last time out on Jan. 25, but it’s worth noting that he was almost three lengths clear of the third-place runner that day. He earned a 67 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort, and I anticipate a number around there will get the job done today. Expect this son of Mizzen Mast to sit a lovely stalking trip throughout. UNMATCHED FORCE (6) has solid early speed, and while he seems to be at his best when on the lead, I think he has the ability to sit and make his run turning for home. If the stretch-out sprinter from the rail guns it from the gate look for Unmatched Force to be glued to his flank. TAMA COUNTY (7) has the highest last-out Beyer in the field (74), and although that was achieved racing on grass this one has proven himself over dirt. If there happens to be a swifter-than-expected pace scenario this one will be moving late.

The big name in the second has to be SEEKING THE SHERIF (6), but this horse is dropping from a graded stakes event last out and is not in for a tag – a move that absolutely terrifies me. He’s certainly the class of the field, but I don’t like this move at all and I feel obligated to at least try to beat him. I will single GIANT EGO (5) in the second half of the early double; it has been quite a while between drinks for this son of Cause Ur Mine, but he appears to be the likely pacesetter and I will hope that he can hold off Seeking the Sherif, who figures to be breathing down his neck every step of the way.

RACE 6

All eyes will be on Texas Red in the San Vicente, and I suppose there’s a scenario where the pace gets ridiculous in front of him and he’s able to pick up the pieces coming from the back. However, I don’t see that being a likely scenario – especially since this race is nothing more than a starting point for the Breeders’ Cup champion. I like SERBIAN SYCLONE (2) to take the San Vicente; he has turned into quite a nice sprinter for Peter Miller, and at the end of the day I think he’s the quality of the speeds. He’s listed at 5-2 on the morning line, but much of my potential plays will depend on the odds of each of these runners. In this spot, here’s what my value line looks like:

1) Lord Nelson; 27 percent chance, 3-1 VL

2) Serbian Syclone; 27 percent chance, 3-1 VL

3) Jazzy Josh; 5 percent chance, 19-1 VL

4) Texas Red; 28 percent chance, 3-1 VL

7) Bench Warrant; 5 percent chance, 19-1 VL

8) Sir Samson; 8 percent chance, 12-1 VL

THE PLAYS

Daily Double, Races 1 and 2:

2,6,7 with 5

Exactas, Race 6:

2 / 1 if it pays $43 or more

2 / 4 if it pays $43 or more