Weekend Warrior for Feb. 7: Picks for Fred Hooper, San Marcos, Suwannee River
There are big doings Saturday at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. Gulfstream has six stakes on its card, including a pair of Grade 1 races – the $500,000 Donn and the $300,000 Gulfstream Park Turf. Santa Anita has only three stakes and no Grade 1 races. But it does have a matchup everyone wants to see in the Grade 2, $500,000 San Antonio, with Horse of the Year California Chrome challenged by Shared Belief.
Fred W. Hooper Stakes
This is one of the undercard stakes at Gulfstream, and Race Day scares me here. In his first start for trainer Todd Pletcher most recently, Race Day ran off and hid at this distance and over the surface, earning a heady 109 Beyer Speed Figure. And the form of that race was supported when distant third-place finisher Looking Cool (who is also in this race) finished second in a three-way photo ahead of Commissioner, who can be found in the Donn. But being a Pletcher production and with that big Beyer, Race Day is likely to be an underlay.
:: DONN HANDICAP: Get PPs, watch Saturday’s card live
I’m going with Confrontation, a surprisingly sharp second in the Hal’s Hope last time out to Lea, who is by far the horse to beat in the Donn. Lea had a poor trip in the Hal’s Hope and was a much-the-best winner. But Confrontation had a tough trip, too, and I thought he was clearly second-best. Not only was Confrontation up against it, having to close into a slow early pace, but he also was caught four wide on the far turn, not an easy feat in a five-horse field. But Confrontation fought gamely in the best performance of his career.
San Marcos Stakes
Trainer Peter Miller has done a fine job with Finnegans Wake. If you dismiss his outing in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, where he was obviously overmatched, Finnegans Wake posted a second in the John Henry Turf Championship and wins in his last two starts in the Hollywood Turf Cup and the San Gabriel for his new barn that make him the one to beat here. But I can’t resist taking Dynamic Sky, even though I have never been his biggest fan.
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Dynamic Sky finished sixth behind Finnegans Wake in the San Gabriel, but he was buried in traffic inside for much of the stretch run. It’s one thing to be stymied in traffic with no run, but Dynamic Sky apparently had plenty of run that he was unable to show, as he galloped out powerfully well ahead of the field past the wire.
Suwannee River Stakes
I thought Rosalind was a live longshot in last week’s Endeavour Stakes and picked her in this space, but she was scratched. Well, Rosalind is going in this spot instead, which actually came up an easier race than the Endeavour. And I’m going right back to her.
Rosalind’s form last year was clouded by an unsuccessful trip to Royal Ascot and the fact that she ran back here in the States only two weeks after that. But Rosalind was good before that journey. She was a dead-heat winner in the Grade 1 Ashland, and her fourth in the Kentucky Oaks was creditable when you account for how dominant Untapable was. Rosalind now makes her first start for trainer Chad Brown, which is always a plus, and I will trust that Brown has her straightened out and ready to go with blinkers on.
As for the San Antonio, I’m a fan of both California Chrome and Shared Belief, and you should use both in the Cross-Country Pick Four, as that will pretty much lock up the race. But I’m siding with Shared Belief.
The Breeders’ Cup Classic would have been a very different race if Shared Belief wasn’t knocked silly out of the gate and had not encountered additional trouble in the early stages. I also don’t buy the idea that Shared Belief isn’t as brilliant on dirt as he is on synthetic. I strongly believe that the reason his recent dirt races might not look as flashy on paper is because of circumstance. He also had a brutal trip in the Awesome Again Stakes before the Breeders’ Cup, and his win in the Malibu was a testament to his versatility. It’s not easy cutting back to seven furlongs off four straight starts at distances of nine, 10, nine, and 10 furlongs.