The concept that a good trainer, even an Eclipse Award-winning trainer, can be a bad bet in certain circumstances was introduced in our very first “Bet This, Not That” column, in which we noted Todd Pletcher’s numbers in Grade 1 stakes on turf (1 for 50 with a $0.13 return on investment over the past five years as of this writing, with the last winner coming in July 2012) and Bob Baffert’s stats in turf sprints at Santa Anita (1 for 39, $0.09 ROI, with last winner coming in February 2010). By noting their lack of recent success in these areas, we are in no way implying that Baffert and Pletcher are not good trainers; rather, we are simply suggesting that you think twice before backing one of these runners, especially at a short price. In that spirit, we used DRF Formulator to look at other successful trainers whose runners have been similarly overvalued by the betting market in certain areas compared to their overall success rate over the past five years. Today’s column focuses solely on those types of “Not That” bets that are best avoided, especially at short odds. We encourage you to use Formulator yourself to analyze patterns and unearth similar negative angles –or remarkably positive ones – and at the bottom of this article, you’ll find a code to try Formulator if you’re not already familiar with this powerful piece of software. Not That: Thomas Bush with all first-time starters. Bush is a strong New York-based trainer who does particularly good work with turf horses, most recently with Grade 1 winners Unbridled Command and Get Stormy. However, Bush does not rush his horses, and even those stakes winners needed a few starts to notch a maiden victory. In fact, Bush has not had a debut winner in the past five years, and 87 percent of his first-time starters finished out of the money over the past five years. That equates to a record of 84-0-3-8, including 23 debuters who lost at odds of lower than 10-1. Eventually, Bush will score with a firster, but given his history, there is no need to settle for short odds. And consider taking particular note of any Bush firster taking money or showing speed for future reference. He likely has inherent talent. Not That: Leah Gyarmati in turf routes. Gyarmati is coming off her best year as a trainer, amassing more than $2.2 million in earnings, highlighted by Sweet Reason’s two Grade 1 wins. Those wins came on dirt, though. On turf, Gyarmati has just one win in a route over the past five years, with a record of 113-1-6-7 and a $0.06 ROI in those races over that time. This means that 88 percent of those runners have finished out of the money, and 33 of the 112 losses came at odds lower than 10-1. The good news is that Gyarmati’s one winner came recently, in September, so more turf-route winners are likely, but until she goes on a roll, healthy win odds should be demanded in that category. Not That: Eoin Harty with first-time starters on dirt. As one of the go-to trainers for Godolphin and WinStar Farm, Harty gets some of the most regally bred horses in the world. His crowning achievement came in the 2009 Dubai World Cup, where Well Armed trounced 13 rivals by 14 lengths. More recently, he’s earned graded stakes wins with Endorsement and Out of Bounds, both on dirt, and this year, he has Kentucky Derby hopeful My Johnny Be Good. However, none of that talented bunch had a winning debut on dirt. Over the past five years, Harty has debuted 48 starters on dirt, and none has won (48-0-3-7). Many of those runners went on to be very nice horses; indeed, a number of them would eventually win or place in graded stakes. But Harty clearly prefers not to rush these types, so tread lightly when playing them, especially if you feel you aren’t getting full value. Not That: Dallas Stewart in graded stakes. Stewart has a history of recent success in graded stakes. He accomplished the unusual feat of running second in the Kentucky Derby for two years in a row, with Golden Soul in 2013 and Commanding Curve last year, and he trained Lemons Forever, who won the 2006 Kentucky Oaks at odds of 47-1, as well as multiple graded stakes winner Macho Again. Lately, though, wins in graded stakes have been hard to come by. Over the past five years, he’s 67-2-7-8 with a $0.78 ROI in graded stakes, and both of those victories came in six-horse fields, one coming via disqualification. The last time he had a horse cross the finish line first in a graded stakes race was June 2010 in the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks. We certainly wouldn’t fault anyone for including one of his runners at a price – he’s been the key to big exotic payoffs in some of the nation’s top races – but recent history has shown that they are tough to trust on the win end. Not That: John Sadler in races outside of California. Sadler has trained more than 40 graded stakes winners, including Grade 1 winners Healthy Addiction, Twirling Candy, Crisp, and Sidney’s Candy. He regularly has a number of candidates for the Kentucky Derby, such as Candy Boy in 2014 and the debut maiden winner Yiannis this year. Recently, though, Sadler has had very little success winning races outside of California. Over the past five years, he’s 72-5-10-15 with a $1.11 ROI in races outside his home state, and since a four-week span in April/May 2010, when he won four races, he’s gone 1 for 54. The lone win came in the Arizona Oaks at Turf Paradise in February 2012 at odds of 2-1. Despite the poor statistics, those runners get bet, and 31 of the 67 also-rans went off at odds of 5-1 or lower. Not That: Mike Maker with first-time starters in maiden special weight routes after September of their 2-year-old year. Mike Maker is the kind of trainer who wins at a high rate with nearly all types of runners, and when he has a first-time starter, he tends to get well bet. Considering his stats with horses making their debut (25 for 112, 22 percent, $2.19 ROI over the last two years), this makes a lot of sense. But dig a bit deeper, and it becomes clear that the bulk of that success has occurred either in sprints or earlier in the horse’s 2-year-old year. In fact, over the past five years, Maker is 77-9-7-11 with a $1.15 ROI when debuting horses in maiden special weight routes. Upon closer examination, all of those nine wins came with 2-year-olds, and six of the nine came in September or earlier, often at tracks like Turfway Park or Ellis Park. Here’s a breakdown of his stats with horses debuting in MSW routes: Category Starters 1st 2nd 3rd ROI 2YOs in July thru Sept. 29 6 2 2 $2.11 2YOs after Oct. 1 20 3 0 5 $1.38 3yo & Up 28 0 5 5 $0.00 As you can see, the younger they are, the greater the success Maker has had. With horses making their debut in a MSW route after September of their 2-year-old year, Maker is 48-3-5-10 with a $0.58 ROI over the past five years. However, it’s interesting to note that almost all of these runners were well bet, with 35 of the 48 horses going off lower than 10-1 and 17 of them 9-2 or lower. These are just a few examples of bets to avoid. Every day, at every track, you will find many examples of these kinds of great (or awful) opportunities. DRF Formulator gives you the keys to find these angles, and it could very well lead you to a winner who is overlooked by much of the betting public. Check out the different Formulator plans available, priced for every budget. 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