Jerardi: Look for American Pharoah to run big again
I believe American Pharoah has a big forward move coming in the Preakness when we might see the big-margin win some were expecting in the Kentucky Derby.
Dick JerardiMay 14, 2015
I believe American Pharoah has a big forward move coming in the Preakness when we might see the big-margin win some were expecting in the Kentucky Derby.
Unusually Big (#9, ML 7-2) makes his return in Thursday’s eighth race at Santa Anita, a one-mile maiden claimer on turf. It will be his first start since a third-place finish by five lengths in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race on turf April 17 at Golden Gate. The fourth- and fifth-place finishers from that race came back to win their next starts.
Welsch's Pimlico pick four play for Friday, May 15
With only eight horses in the Preakness, three of whom seem overmatched, bettors shouldn’t anticipate any blowup payoffs. But that is not to say there isn’t a potential overlay. If the betting goes as expected, DORTMUND might start a tick or two higher on the board than he should.
The knock on AMERICAN PHAROAH is not the inside post. The knock is price. His odds will be low after a Kentucky Derby victory in which he lost ground for much of the trip. He also raced in the clear and avoided the trouble that compromised others. American Pharoah is quick enough to make the lead from the rail, and it is doubtful that his stablemate drawn directly to his outside will engage early. Assuming a clean break, American Pharoah can lead wire to wire. Nine of the last 18 Derby winners returned to win the Preakness.
I would love to be able to get creative in the second leg of the Triple Crown, but frankly, it’s pretty difficult to get beyond the logical contenders coming out of this year’s Kentucky Derby.
There are reasons to side against AMERICAN PHAROAH in the Preakness, but the problem is there just aren’t any satisfactory alternatives. So almost by default, I’m going with the Kentucky Derby winner to succeed at Pimlico.
Given that non-Derby starters are an anemic 3-8-8 from 133 Preakness starts since 1993, it seems unlikely this is the year to buck that strong trend as the top three finishers in Louisville, Ky., appear to have a significant edge on the rest of the field.
Two big days of racing at Pimlico, both offering 14 races with quality horses. There are a lot of betting opportunities, and we’ll be using DRF Formulator to find a few to play, as well as one to avoid.
Download DRF Plus handicapping reports for Thursday's races, including DRF Bets GamePlan, the Positive ROI Report, and Key Race Report.