Byron King's Preakness analysis

1. Dortmund
2. American Pharoah
3. Firing Line
4. Danzig Moon

With only eight horses in the Preakness, three of whom seem overmatched, bettors shouldn’t anticipate any blowup payoffs. But that is not to say there isn’t a potential overlay. If the betting goes as expected, DORTMUND might start a tick or two higher on the board than he should.

Having lost for the first time in the Kentucky Derby, seemingly without an excuse (unless one thinks the rail was dead), some of the shine is off him. So, following just that one defeat, he is the 7-2 second favorite on the morning line behind AMERICAN PHAROAH and just below 4-1 FIRING LINE.

My take on Dortmund’s Derby performance: He didn’t run to his full potential and still ran third in the Kentucky Derby. He seemed to be traveling well early, going comfortably on the lead, but once asked, he failed to show the fight that was so evident when he won the Los Alamitos Futurity and Robert B. Lewis Stakes earlier in his career over Firing Line.

:: Preakness: Contenders and news

So, the question is: Can he fare better in the Preakness? More so than other quick returnees in the Preakness, I believe he can. This is a giant horse, and if there were ever a horse with the physicality to withstand a hard race and then return two weeks later at his best, it would be him.

Is that best good enough to win? Probably not. American Pharoah was the favorite going into the Derby and ran like a favorite should, but just as Dortmund was somewhat off his game at Churchill, there is the possibility that American Pharoah could have that happen to him at Pimlico. Very few horses produce their best race time and time again. Poor racing luck also can eliminate a horse from contention – just see Materiality’s trip in the Derby for evidence.

American Pharoah is the most likely winner, but he’s also likely to be 4-5. The risk of running back on short rest and over a new track just doesn’t justify the low mutuel reward.

As for Firing Line, I must admit that I didn’t respect him enough in the Derby. That won’t happen again, hence him being the third selection, and not far behind them at that.

DANZIG MOON rounds out the top four. He keeps making progress, and he ran sneaky well to be fifth in the Derby. His connections didn’t immediately commit him to the Preakness, and by doing so after watching him train for a few days, they suggested that they let his condition tell them if he deserved the chance to run.