Mike Watchmaker's Preakness analysis

AMERICAN PHAROAH
DORTMUND
DANZIG MOON
FIRING LINE

There are reasons to side against AMERICAN PHAROAH in the Preakness, but the problem is there just aren’t any satisfactory alternatives. So almost by default, I’m going with the Kentucky Derby winner to succeed at Pimlico.

One issue I have with American Pharoah is he had yet another perfect trip in the Derby, just like he did in his four previous victories. Yes, he conceded ground with a four-wide trip. But the trade of some ground loss for a clean journey in an 18-horse field is one to make every single time, and American Pharoah had a pristine trip at Churchill. Moreover, he sat in the garden spot right off a pace that while slow was contested by two of his primary opponents.

Despite that sweet setup, American Pharoah had to work harder than ever, and that leads to another concern: American Pharoah is not only wheeling back quickly off what had to be a draining effort, but he also will be making his third start in just five weeks. I do think demanding races like the one American Pharoah had in the Derby can serve to toughen up some horses and move them forward, and it might work that way for him. But given his recent schedule, it still is fair to wonder if he can produce another top effort – and if he can’t, whether the performance he does deliver will be good enough.

:: Preakness: Contenders and news

However, the other horses coming out of the Derby – and I view them as American Pharoah’s main competition Saturday – have to deal with the same two-week turnaround while also having to close a performance gap that American Pharoah doesn’t have to worry about. And American Pharoah might carve out another good trip even from the rail in the Preakness. His positional speed puts him in position for good trips every time.

I loved DORTMUND in the Derby, and I thought he was the winner down the backstretch. Although Dortmund was getting pressure from Firing Line, the fractions were slow, and I envisioned him pulling the rug out from the Derby field turning for home. But Dortmund faded to third and simply wasn’t good enough. I think Dortmund can do better, but he must run much better to be a serious win threat.

DANZIG MOON had early trouble in the Derby but had a clear run in the stretch and wound up an even fifth. He is improving, though, and can pick up some pieces late in a field comprised mainly of pace and stalker types.

FIRING LINE was a gutsy second in the Derby. But the book on him is he does best with lots of time between starts. He’s getting the exact opposite this time.