Brad Free's Preakness analysis

1-American Pharoah
2-Dortmund
3-Divining Rod
4-Danzig Moon

The knock on AMERICAN PHAROAH is not the inside post. The knock is price. His odds will be low after a Kentucky Derby victory in which he lost ground for much of the trip. He also raced in the clear and avoided the trouble that compromised others. American Pharoah is quick enough to make the lead from the rail, and it is doubtful that his stablemate drawn directly to his outside will engage early. Assuming a clean break, American Pharoah can lead wire to wire. Nine of the last 18 Derby winners returned to win the Preakness.

DORTMUND drew post 2 and could get an ideal trip pressing the pace outside his stablemate American Pharoah. While it is true that Dortmund benefitted from a “race shape” that favored speed while finishing third in the Derby, the Preakness could unfold at a similar tempo. The race is likely to be won by a front-runner/presser trained by Bob Baffert. From a value perspective, Dortmund’s odds are likely to be higher than American Pharoah.

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DIVINING ROD gets tested for class, up to a Grade 1 for the first time. His versatility and forward style could lead to a cozy trip tucked in third behind the top pair. Divining Rod scored a sharp win last month in the Grade 3 Lexington. With five weeks between starts, he is likely to reproduce top form. The question is whether he is good enough. He is bred to be special, sired by Tapit and produced by the outstanding Grade 1 turf winner Precious Kitten.

DANZIG MOON finished an okay fifth in the Kentucky Derby. He needs the front-runners to back up in order to have a fair shot. If the aforementioned speed-conducive pace analysis turns out to be erroneous, a bettor might want coverage from a closer. Danzig Moon is a closer.

Firing Line gave American Pharoah a battle to deep stretch in the Derby, missing by only a length. It was a terrific effort by Firing Line, who was racing for the first time in six weeks. Now, he wheels back in two weeks. While the quick-turnaround challenge is similar to other Derby-Preakness starters, none entered the Derby off a six-week break.

Bodhisattva enters with improving form. The winner of the Federico Tesio Stakes last out at Pimlico, he has equaled or improved his Beyer Speed Figure with every start. Still, he remains many lengths behind the top contenders. Deputed Testamony in 1983 was the last Tesio winner to win the Preakness. From 2000 forward, Tesio winners are 0 for 9 in the Preakness (2008 Tesio winner Icabad Crane finished third).

A win by either Mr. Z or Tale of Verve would shock.