Jerardi: Look for American Pharoah to run big again

American Pharoah got a 105 Beyer Speed Figure when he won in a breeze in the Arkansas Derby and a 105 when he was all out to win the Kentucky Derby. So, does that mean the colt has maxed out? I don’t think so.

I believe American Pharoah has a big forward move coming in the Preakness, where we might see the big-margin win some were expecting in the Derby. Given how much training time he missed after the foot bruise last fall that caused him to skip the Breeders’ Cup, American Pharoah was on a very tight schedule just to make the Derby. That he got there in such great shape is a tribute to Bob Baffert, his team, and the colt’s inherent talent.

Some might think that such a difficult race will cause American Pharoah to regress. I don’t discount that.

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I just think it more likely that it got him more fit and in a position to deliver a maximum performance. I think American Pharoah is going to hit 110 or more on the Beyer scale in the Preakness. And if he does, the others are almost certainly running for second.

Firing Line has a pair of 104s this season, so he absolutely must be respected. Could he regress after running his previous two races following six-week breaks? Yes, but we are not going to know until they run the race. I do think a Firing Line backward move is slightly more likely than an American Pharoah move in the wrong direction.

But what if Firing Line clears the field and Gary Stevens reprises Oxbow circa 2013? That scenario could very well produce a career-best Beyer and make American Pharoah have to run really hard again to win.

Dortmund’s first three Beyers this year were 104, 104, and 106. He cleared the field with relative ease in the Derby, and Baffert said after the race that he thought Dortmund was the winner on the backstretch. So did I.

I was very surprised that Dortmund started to shorten stride at the quarter pole and ended up with a 101 Beyer. Could that slight illness after his final workout have been an issue? Surely. It was not the distance because he was in trouble after a mile, or the competition, as Dortmund had twice beaten Firing Line.

I am not quite sure what to make of Dortmund. His first loss certainly was no disgrace, but given how consistent and tough he had been in his first six races, it remains perplexing.

Danzig Moon has shown great improvement since he came north from Florida this spring. His 90 Beyer when second in the Blue Grass and great clocker comments in the days leading up to the Derby suggested he was a live longshot. He was just behind the big three much of the race and ran on well enough to finish fifth and get a career-best 95. Does the colt have another five-point forward move? I doubt it, and even if he does, it might not matter. The big three are fast, consistent, and triple-digit Beyer producers on demand.

Divining Rod has four dirt Beyers, a 71 when he won his maiden last fall at Laurel, a 93 and an 85 this past winter at Tampa Bay Downs when circumstances gave him no chance to relax, and a 98 when he worked his way into a great trip in the Lexington and ran away from the field in the stretch. Unlike the Derby horses, Divining Rod has a nice five-week rest, a short ship from the nearby Fair Hill Training Center, and, as a son of Tapit, the potential for another forward move into triple-digit territory.

To win it, Divining Rod might need all of the big three to regress. That seems very unlikely, but this improving colt could be an exotic key if you are willing to take a stand against one or more of the top three Derby finishers.

Mr. Z has lost 12 straight and has lost ground late in every start this year. He hit a 91 Beyer in his final 2-year-old race but never improved. He’s not likely to improve here, regardless of the silks.

Bodhisattva began his career with a 41 when third in a Penn National maiden race last August. His figure has stayed the same or improved in each of his next 10 races, topping out at a 91 when he won the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico a month ago. So, a 50-point move up in eight months is impressive. However, a 15-point move in a month for a horse who has gradually gotten faster is the extreme longshot this colt will be.

Yes, Tale of Verve did just win at the Preakness distance, but it took him more than two minutes to get there and six tries to win a race. A good way to compare his 72 Beyer that day to American Pharoah’s 105 in the Derby is to imagine them in the same race at the Preakness distance. American Pharoah is four seconds faster. That isn’t quite Secretariat to Twice a Prince in the Belmont Stakes, but it is close.