Dave Litfin's Preakness analysis

American Pharoah
Firing Line
Dortmund
Diving Rod

Given that non-Derby starters are an anemic 3-8-8 from 133 Preakness starts since 1993, it seems unlikely this is the year to buck that strong trend as the top three finishers in Louisville, Ky., appear to have a significant edge on the rest of the field.

AMERICAN PHAROAH sacrificed some ground loss for a clear trip in the Kentucky Derby, and it paid dividends in a hard-fought victory over FIRING LINE, with DORTMUND two lengths farther back after setting the pace to the stretch.

The question now is which of them will best handle a two-week turnaround? American Pharoah and Firing Line had only two preps each, compared with three for Dortmund, and they still could be relatively fresh for this assignment. American Pharoah passed a big test in the Derby by facing resistance for the first time and overcoming it, and it’s worth noting Bob Baffert’s three prior Derby winners – Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and War Emblem – all returned to capture the Preakness. Sitting on a Beyer Speed Figure pair-up, he might be poised to leap forward off those 105s.

:: Preakness: Contenders and news

Firing Line gave the top choice all he wanted through gut-check time in the Derby and did so despite neglecting to change leads and being bothered slightly as the winner drifted in late. You can be sure Gary Stevens will not be caught off guard again, and a correct lead change could make up the one-length difference. This colt fires every time and does not back down from a scrape.

Dortmund is a robust individual who should thrive with a lot of racing, and one is left to wonder whether he still might have been feeling the effects from a reportedly brief bout with colic in the Derby. He might benefit from this slightly shorter distance and earned better Beyers in each of his first three starts this year.

Among the new shooters, DIVINING ROD looks best, judging from a breakthrough performance to win the Lexington Stakes. He has had five weeks off, just as he did for that race, and he is bred to handle the additional furlong he travels Saturday.

BODHISATTVA has done a considerable amount of developing since starting off in maiden sprints on the Mid-Atlantic circuit and looks to become the first local horse to prevail since Deputed Testamony in 1983. He never has taken a backward step in terms of figures, topped by a win in the Federico Tesio Stakes over the Pimlico strip.