Illman: Belmont pick four play for Sunday, Oct. 19
Let's try the late pick four.
Dan IllmanOct 19, 2014
Let's try the late pick four.
Santa Anita Pick Four play by Marcus Hersh for Sunday, October 19.
Nothing in the individual past performances hint of weakness in favorites CAROLINE THOMAS (#13, 9-2) and WHITE ROSE (#14, 5-1) in Sunday’s Dowager Stakes at Keeneland. But having drawn posts 13 and 14, respectively, with a short run to the first of three turns in the 1 1/2-mile race, wide trips for both could leave them vulnerable.
The Sunday card kicks off with a “dropdown derby” of sorts, with eight veteran sprinters going six furlongs in the first $10,000 claimer at the fall meet. Needless to say, everyone is taking a drop – even Ten Items Or Less, who is back from Finger Lakes after getting through two restricted claiming conditions for $15,000.
Canadian International Day features four stakes, including three graded events on the turf. Lane 1 will be used on a course that will have some give to it, ground that should give an advantage to some of the European invaders.
There could be some vulnerable favorites on Empire Showcase Saturday at Belmont. Let’s try to exploit them.
While there is a $300,000-guaranteed late pick four, I’m more interested in the all-stakes early pick four on races 2 through 5, the Sleepy Hollow, Maid of the Mist, Mohawk and Iroquois. It’s a pretty simple caveman play, based on the fact that the first two legs offer some price potential, and the last two look like they’re strictly two-horse affairs.
If handicappers knew that the Santa Anita main track would be as biased Saturday as it was Friday, planning would be easy – just find the speed.
With the days getting ever shorter, first post at Belmont Park has been moved up to 12:20 p.m. Eastern for Saturday’s Empire Showcase Day card, where all 11 races are exclusively for New York-breds, including eight stakes collectively worth $1.75 million.
With much of the country focusing on statebred stakes Saturday, Keeneland is the lone track to offer a graded stakes race. And it is a good one – the Grade 2 Raven Run, a $250,000, seven-furlong contest for 3-year-old fillies that drew both depth and quality. Thirteen fillies are entered, and seemingly at least five of them have about the same chance of winning.