Weekend Warrior for Oct. 25: Picks for Jean Lafitte, Fayette, Autumn Miss
The Saturday before the Breeders’ Cup finds three graded stakes on the schedule – the Grade 2, $200,000 Fayette at Keeneland; the Grade 3, $200,000 Bold Ruler Handicap at Belmont; and the Grade 3, $100,000 Autumn Miss at Santa Anita.
Jean Lafitte Stakes
This is the local stepping-stone to the rich Delta Downs Jackpot, and Big Big Easy might not be a big, big favorite, but he figures to be the chalk off an allowance score most recently at Churchill Downs.
Big Big Easy made it 2 for 2 in his career on the sort of fast dirt track that he will catch Saturday night. And he did so going the one-mile distance of this event and earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 83 that is the best in this field.
I was originally skeptical of that 83 because that meant Eagle, who earned a 78 in finishing second, improved a staggering 32 Beyer points off a victory in his only other start. But Eagle came back to win an allowance route at Keeneland on Wednesday and duplicated his 78 Beyer. So, Big Big Easy’s 83 looks solid, making him strictly the one to beat, only at an unappealing price.
I can’t resist Incremental as a plausible alternative, and he will be a much better price. When trainer Al Stall ships a maiden to run in a spot like this, it requires a second look. A second look reveals that Incremental has some intriguing attributes.
Incremental got rolling too late when he made his debut in a hot maiden race at Churchill in June, a race that saw first- and third-place finishers Mr. Z and Hashtag Bourbon go on to be stakes horses. And last time out in a maiden route at Keeneland, Incremental was beaten just a length despite being checked and bumped between horses into the first turn and on the first turn, and then being in tight again in upper stretch and in the late stages.
But it is Incremental’s effort in a strong turf route at Saratoga in his second start that is most interesting. Despite having no turf breeding in his immediate family, Incremental finished third in that race, just behind Imperia, who came back to win the Pilgrim Stakes impressively and is arguably the best U.S. hope in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Incremental also finished ahead of The Truth Or Else, who came back to get his maiden win at Belmont and finish third in the Champagne, albeit a distant third. For Incremental to run that well against that kind of company on a surface he really isn’t cut out for, he must have some real potential.
Fayette Stakes
I have chased Long River in some tougher spots than this one, and he finally responded with an improved third last time out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. If Long River runs back to his Gold Cup, the rest of this field is in trouble. But Long River was 52-1 in the Gold Cup, and I have a hard time taking a horse who was that big of a price last time as the possible favorite, or no worse than second choice, this time.
Pick of the Litter was compromised by a slow pace most recently when fourth in the Homecoming Classic. He gets a little more pace up front this time and is my play.
Pick of the Litter is in the best form of his career. He won at Saratoga two starts back, beating Cigar Street, who came back to win the Homecoming Classic. Yes, Cigar Street was coming off a long layoff at Saratoga, but he was hammered down to less than even money, suggesting that he was expected to return in sharp form. Even Pick of the Litter’s fourth-place finish in the Monmouth Cup three back was good, as he was against a strong track bias.
Autumn Miss Stakes
This is a wild betting race, as you can make good cases for a handful of horses. But I’m going with Famous Alice.
Famous Alice wasn’t badly beaten by older Grade 1 mares in the Rodeo Drive last time out and now moves back in with straight 3-year-olds, a significant class drop. Moreover, the way Famous Alice failed to sustain her run in the Del Mar Oaks two back suggests the cut back to a mile here suits her perfectly.