Gierkink's preview: Figuring figures

Making speed figures on those Wednesdays when the Polytrack tightens up and speeds up as the night goes on can be tricky, according to speed figure guru Andy Beyer.

A prime example is Drop to Pop, who is 6-1 in Wednesday’s fifth race, an $8,000 sprint for non-winners of three. Drop to Pop beat $8,000 non-winners-of-two types in the eighth race on a Wednesday, Oct. 1. He ran seven furlongs in 1:23.69, which was .11 slower than what it took for Ultimate Blue to crush $8,000 maidens in the fourth race at the same distance on the same night. Ultimate Blue earned a 72 Beyer, while Drop to Pop received a 52 Beyer.

The following is Beyer’s explanation for splitting the track variant on the Oct. 1 card to try and account for the track getting quicker:
“If the variant for the early part of the card was applied to the final race, Drop to Pop would get a figure of 70. His five previous starts were 49-50-53-53-55, so this much improvement looks a little implausible, particularly because some of the horses behind him would have shown equally implausible improvement.”

It will be interesting to so see how Drop to Pop fares on Wednesday. The rival who finished a nose behind him in second Oct. 1, Justin’s Tapit, subsequently ran sixth as the favorite in a slightly tougher conditioned claimer, while earning about the same Beyer as he did on Oct. 1.

Jackpot Hi 5 carryover $209,916

Wednesday’s nightcap, a seven-furlong event for rock-bottom $6,250 stock, drew 16 runners, with Clean House (20-1) and Tapitdar (2-1) stuck on the also-eligibles.

Thundering Waters (3-1) is no bargain off a win at a notch highe off a perfect trip.

Hey You Pick Me (6-1) is dropping to where he can double up off a victory over $12,500 non-winners-of-three opposition. He rarely runs a bad one, and has put up Beyers in the mid-60s since his season opener in June.

Other possibilities include Mr. Honey Badger (4-1), Candles On Friday (12-1) and Cytherean (20-1).

Horses to watch

AULT

Trainer: Danny Vella
Last race: Oct. 19, 3rd
Finish: 2nd by 1 1/2
Beyer: 60
He rallied along the inside to finish a clear second behind the heavily favored Three Ring Circus at first asking in a six-furlong maiden special for 2-year-olds. The son of English Channel is by the same sire and has the same connections as 2012 Queen’s Plate winner Strait of Dover.