Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby: Sunland Derby analysis
Grade 3, $500,000 Sunland Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Sunland Park, March 27, 2022
(50 Derby qualifying points for first, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)
Winner: Slow Down Andy, by Nyquist
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
Owner: Reddam Racing
Beyer Speed Figure: 86
SLOW DOWN ANDY faced much tougher in his previous start, the Risen Star, in which he got a tentative ride that hindered his chances by forcing him wide in a soft-paced race. This easier spot, and a change in tactics, resulted in his second graded stakes win, following the Los Alamitos Futurity last December, in which he beat Messier.
Slow Down Andy still races with immaturity, and, as in the Los Alamitos Futurity, it nearly cost him late here, but he does have some grit, and he battled back to prevail by a half-length in a race that was very fast early (1:09.54 for six furlongs), very slow late (final three furlongs in a glacial 40.62).
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He deserves credit for setting that hot pace and still hanging on. The early pacesetter, STRAIGHT UP G, was beaten 37 lengths. But context matters. This field pales in comparison, for instance, to what was seen the previous day in the Louisiana Derby.
In this race, Slow Down Andy showed good speed to vie for the early lead inside Straight Up G as those two opened several lengths on their rivals in a 22.30-second opening quarter. He was just behind and inside of Straight Up G down the backstretch while continuing to roll along, though midway through the race Gutierrez seemed to already sense he had Straight Up G measured, as he took a quick peek behind.
Slow Down Andy advanced to get on terms with Straight Up G three furlongs out, and was going the better of the two midway on the turn when Gutierrez looked back anew. He came under aggressive handling before the quarter pole – likely because he was trying to pull himself up after leaving Straight Up G – and drifted several lanes off the rail coming off the bend.
He moved back toward the inside while awkwardly changing leads in upper stretch, responded to a severe threat from BYE BYE BOBBY with 150 yards to go, and maintained a narrow advantage to the wire. He’s got to be a goofy, challenging horse to ride, with all his quirks. But he’s got some fight. On the gallop out, when Bye Bye Bobby got up to him, Slow Down Andy re-engaged and stayed in front.
Bye Bye Bobby, who finished second, moved between horses while in the two path into the first turn to gain an ideal position behind two dueling leaders. He was third while in the clear behind those two leaders three furlongs out, made good progress without much effort, looked like he was going to roll past Slow Down Andy a quarter-mile out, was floated out coming off the bend, and was late to change leads while drifting out. He made another bid as though he was going to go past Slow Down Andy at mid-stretch, but was stymied anew. He was supposed to win the way the race came up.
It was 8 1/2 lengths to the next horse, which underscores how much better the top two were than their six rivals, and how inferior this race was overall. The third-place finisher got a Beyer figure of 73, and that was his career best.
PEPPER SPRAY, who was third, broke half a step slow, but recovered quickly and went into the first turn mid-pack in the three path, before dropping to the two path midway on the turn. He was asked to advance three furlongs out, made some progress while inside, but was closer to the top two in upper stretch than he was at the finish despite the closing fractions, which says a lot about those behind him.
FOWLER BLUE, who was fourth, was outrun in the early going and went into the first turn in sixth while saving ground. He was taken off the rail heading into the far turn to commence a rally from the three path, angled inside a tiring Straight Up G coming off the bend, continued between rivals through the lane while failing to change leads, and couldn’t get past Pepper Spray.
CHROME KING, who was fifth, got squeezed back between rivals in the opening yards, raced three to four paths wide around the first turn while well back, then made an extended, mid-race move to get up to fourth with a half-mile to go. He went into the far turn in the three path, stalled on his run early on the turn, drifted about six paths wide coming off the bend, was in a three-way battle for third through the lane, and finished the worst of that trio. The start and mid-race move might be enough to say he was third-best in here. He’s already run six times this calendar year, 11 times overall. That’s a lot.
COSTA TERRA, who was sixth, had no early speed and tailed off early, saved ground from his rail draw, was taken widest of all into the far turn while still well back, saved ground into the lane, and only beat a horse who was exhausted and a horse who was eased, while outrun throughout.
Straight Up G, who was seventh, veered in at the start, then acted like he was trying to run as fast as he could from Baja to the Canadian Rockies, as he outran Slow Down Andy for the lead and set a blistering pace while taking a strong hold of the bit. He had to be urged along three furlongs out to try and go with Slow Down Andy, but was done before reaching the quarter pole, stopped badly in upper stretch, and was pretty much eased the rest of the way, though he did cross the wire.
CLASSIC MOMENT, officially last of eight, hopped slightly at the start, saved ground around the first turn while tracking the leaders, began to falter midway through the race, dropped back to last early on the far turn without being persevered with, then was pulled up in upper stretch.