Wednesday, Dec. 31 − Churchill Downs

2019 Kentucky Derby

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POST	HORSE		TRACK ODDS	WATCHMAKER ODDS	BEST BEYER	JAY PRIVMAN AND MIKE WATCHMAKER COMMENTS
PGM. NO.	SIRE	- designates Keeneland sale graduate	TRACK ODDS	WATCHMAKER ODDS	BEST BEYER	JAY PRIVMAN AND MIKE WATCHMAKER COMMENTS
2	War of Will		15-1	20-1	94	JP: Worked over the weekend as though his La. Derby debacle is behind him, but that was only start in past 11 weeks.
	by War Front					MW: His Risen Star and Lecomte wins came with easy trips against modest fields, and really weren't all that fast.
	Owner: Gary Barber; Trainer: Mark Casse; Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

3	Tax		20-1	20-1	96	JP: Hard to envision getting better trip than he did in Wood. If he couldn't win that day, think this will be difficult.
	by Arch					MW: Was beaten 1 1/4 lengths by Tacitus in Wood, but the difference between them really was considerably larger.
	Owner: R. A. Hill Stable, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, et al; Trainer: Danny Gargan; Jockey: Junior Alvarado

4	By My Standards		15-1	15-1	97	JP: Turned in career-best performance winning Louisiana Derby, and has trained like a superstar since. A must use.
	by Goldencents					MW: Originally was unimpressed with his La. Derby but have since warmed to it a bit. He might wind up an underlay.
	Owner: Allied Racing Stable; Trainer: Bret Calhoun; Jockey: Gabriel Saez

5	Gray Magician		50-1	50-1	80	JP: Showed he was a decided cut below these before going to the UAE Derby. Deserving longshot even off best form.
	by Graydar					MW: That his second in an especially weak UAE Derby was his best performance yet says a lot about his prior form.
	Owner: Wachtel Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partnerships, et al; Trainer: Peter Miller; Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke

6	Improbable		5-1	6-1	99	JP: Blinkers come back off after Ark. Derby experiment. Second-best last time to Omaha Beach, final work terrific.
	by City Zip					MW: My Derby horse at the start of the year and I'm sticking with him. I still feel he has more ability than he's shown.
	Owner: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club & Starlight Racing; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

7	Vekoma		15-1	15-1	97	JP: Smallish colt has awkward way of going but can run. Like way he pulled clear after attending pace in Blue Grass.
	by Candy Ride					MW: He's better than given credit for, but when he won the Blue Grass, he rode the crest of a speed-favoring track.
	Owner: R. A. Hill Stable & Gatsas Stables; Trainer: George Weaver; Jockey: Javier Castellano

8	Maximum Security		8-1	10-1	102s	JP: Reminds me of War Emblem in that if other riders don't respect him, he could have another easy time up front.
	by New Year's Day					MW: In his case, I'm taking the approach that like Las Vegas, what happens at Gulfstream often stays at Gulfstream.
	Owner: Gary & Mary West; Trainer: Jason Servis; Jockey: Luis Saez

9	Tacitus		8-1	8-1	97	JP: After getting bumped around severely in opening furlong of the Wood, fell into good trip, finished off race well.
	by Tapit					MW: Several horses in the Wood had big trouble but he was the only one to do real running afterward, contender.
	Owner: Juddmonte Farms; Trainer: Bill Mott; Jockey: Jose Ortiz

10	Plus Que Parfait		30-1	30-1	84	JP: His Derby Day was in Dubai. Smart move to avoid elite and go overseas for giant purse. This spot is far tougher.
	by Point of Entry					MW: Enjoyed massive pay day in Dubai, but the UAE Derby he won may have been the weakest in that race's history.
	Owner: Imperial Racing; Trainer: Brendan Walsh; Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

11	Cutting Humor		30-1	30-1	95	JP: Most cleverly named horse in race (by First Samurai out of Pun) has yet to face competition close to this caliber.
	by First Samurai					MW: If the best thing you can say about him is his name ... His Sunland Derby was his best yet, still must improve.
	Owner: Starlight Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Mike Smith

SCR	Haikal		30-1	30-1	95	JP: In roughly run Wood, he had fairly clean trip, pace certainly helped his cause. Always fires, skeptical he's this good.
	by Daaher					MW: I share the same doubts and wonder if he wants to go quite this far, but every one of his races have been solid.
	Owner: Shadwell Stable; Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin; Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

SCR	Omaha Beach		SCR	SCR	101	Scratched
	by War Front
	Owner: Fox Hill Farms; Trainer: Richard Mandella; Jockey: Mike Smith

12	Code of Honor		12-1	15-1	95	JP: Had no chance way Fla. Derby unfolded. Definitely capable of bouncing back in race with pace, should offer value.
	by Noble Mission					MW: On the other hand, he won Fountain of Youth because of a monumental pace collapse after insane fractions.
	Owner: William S. Farish; Trainer: Shug McGaughey; Jockey: John Velazquez

13	Win Win Win		12-1	20-1	99s	JP: Got stopped on far turn in Blue Grass, but kept to task. Should be highest price of career, can outrun odds. Using.
	by Hat Trick					MW: Gets credit for closing in Blue Grass on a speed-favoring track, but Beyers have dropped since going two turns.
	Owner: Live Oak Plantation; Trainer: Mike Trombetta; Jockey: Julian Pimentel

14	Master Fencer		50-1	50-1	n/a	JP: Japanese invader lacked positional speed in final prep, hung after making bid. Can't buy in off of what I've seen.
	by Just a Way					MW: He was all of fourth-best on the Japan road to the Derby, but the top three weren't nominated, so here he is.
	Owner: Katsumi & Yasuyo Yoshizawa; Trainer: Koichi Tsunoda; Jockey: Julien Leparoux

15	Game Winner		9-2	5-1	97	JP: Has had a couple of nice preps, think he's primed for big race, have zero concern over his ability to get distance.
	by Candy Ride					MW: Narrowly beaten in both of his starts this year and had legitimate excuses both times, will take a lot of beating.
	Owner: Gary & Mary West; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Joel Rosario

16	Roadster		5-1	6-1	98	JP: Unbeaten in two starts since undergoing throat surgery. Benefitted from good trips in small fields both times.
	by Quality Road					MW: Definitely had a better trip than Game Winner winning the SA Derby. Smith got off him to ride Omaha Beach.
	Owner: Speedway Stable; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Florent Geroux

17	Long Range Toddy		30-1	30-1	95	JP: Opportunistic win in division of Rebel, then regressed lone start in slop. Form muddied, literally and figuratively.
	by Take Charge Indy					MW: Only he and the formidable Omaha Beach have beaten Improbable, but his win over Improbable seemed fluky.
	Owner: Willis Horton Racing; Trainer: Steve Asmussen; Jockey: Jon Court

18	Spinoff		30-1	20-1	95	JP: Got first run on By My Standards in La. Derby, couldn't hold him off late. Still, it was a solid effort second off layoff.
	by Hard Spun					MW: He was supposed to win the Louisiana Derby after having a clear lead in mid-stretch. Must do much better here.
	Owner: Wertheimer & Frere; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Manny Franco

19	Country House		30-1	30-1	91	JP: Raced more maturely in Ark. Derby, didn't show prior tendency to lug in. Still, no threat to top two. Belmont type.
	by Lookin At Lucky					MW: Yet again, he did not break alertly at Oaklawn. He's not good enough to break 20th in this and expect to win.
	Owner: Mrs. J. V. Shields Jr., E. McFadden Jr. & LNJ Foxwoods; Trainer: Bill Mott; Jockey: Flavien Prat

20	Bodexpress		30-1	50-1	96	JP: Benefitted from soft pace that developed in Fla. Derby, was able to hang around and get second. Still a maiden.
	by Bodemeister					MW: Derby should have a winner's preferred clause. Maidens shouldn't be able to get into the Derby before winners.
	Owner: Top Racing, Global Thoroughbred, et al; Trainer: Gustavo Delgado; Jockey: Chris Landeros