May 5th, 2018 − Churchill Downs

2018 Derby Watch

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Get a complete list of DRF resources and content related to the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 5

POST	HORSE		TRACK ODDS	WATCHMAKER ODDS	BEST BEYER	JAY PRIVMAN AND MIKE WATCHMAKER COMMENTS
	SIRE	- designates Keeneland sales graduate
1	Firenze Fire		50-1	50-1	90	JP: Think his form is in decline, and think Derby distance is well beyond his comfort zone. That's a bad combo.
	by Poseidon's Warrior					MW: Feels like a long time ago when he beat Good Magic in the Champagne. Yes, he's off form, distance-challenged.
	Owner: Mr. Amore Stable; Trainer: Jason Servis; Jockey: Paco Lopez

2	Free Drop Billy		30-1	30-1	90	JP: Was deservedly moved up to third via DQ in Blue Grass, but has seemed to be stuck at same level this spring.
	by Union Rags					MW: One of a conspicuous group here who have shown no progress at a time when they're supposed to progress.
	Owner: Albaugh Family Stables; Trainer: Dale Romans; Jockey: Robby Albarado

3	Promises Fulfilled		30-1	50-1	96	JP: Figures to try and make the early running, but last race was ugly and this is a far deeper field. Hard to endorse.
	by Shackleford					MW: Walked on the early lead when he upset the Fountain of Youth. Won't get a free pass like that in the Derby.
	Owner: Robert Baron; Trainer: Dale Romans; Jockey: Corey Lanerie

4	Flameaway		30-1	30-1	93	JP: Like how he fires every time, no matter surface. His consistency makes him a use in bottom of gimmicks for me.
	by Scat Daddy					MW: He is certainly consistent, but consistency at the low 90s Beyer level won't get much if the best here show up.
	Owner: John Oxley; Trainer: Mark Casse; Jockey: Jose Lezcano

5	Audible		8-1	10-1	99	JP: Got a terrific setup in Fla. Derby, showed good progress in preps at GP. Castellano took him over Bolt d'Oro.
	by Into Mischief					MW: I liked his Fla. Derby. It showed he can win from anywhere. I have no issues with him. I just like others more.
	Owner: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, Starlight Racing, & Heads of Plains Partners; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Javier Castellano

6	Good Magic		12-1	8-1	100	JP: Looks to me like he's thriving. Blue Grass win was solid, trained very well since. Sitting on his best race this year.
	by Curlin					MW: He must run better than he did beating softer company in Blue Grass or he will likely come up empty-handed.
	Owner: e Five Thoroughbreds & Stonestreet Stables; Trainer: Chad Brown; Jockey: Jose Ortiz

7	Justify		3-1	7-2	107	JP: Hype is deserved in terms of talent. The big question is if he encounters trouble, inexperience will betray him.
	by Scat Daddy					MW: His positional speed means he should avoid trouble, and puts him in line for a sweet trip. Favorite looks tough.
	Owner: WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, Starlight Racing, & Head of Plains Partners; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Mike Smith

8	Lone Sailor		50-1	50-1	95	JP: Ran his best race yet in Louisiana Derby, but I believe the form of FG preps this year is below other regionals.
	by Majestic Warrior					MW: Big try last time combined with blazing work on 4/19 confirms his improvement. I won't dismiss this longshot.
	Owner: G M B Racing; Trainer: Tom Amoss; Jockey: James Graham

9	Hofburg		20-1	20-1	94	JP: Liked maturity he showed in Fla. Derby for one with such little experience. Love how he's trained, live at a price.
	by Tapit					MW: I liked him in the Florida Derby, and I thought he ran very well under the circumstances. He's not out of this.
	Owner: Juddmonte Farms; Trainer: Bill Mott; Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

10	My Boy Jack		30-1	30-1	94	JP: Most experienced horse in the field ships everywhere and runs well, but think he's a cut below the best here.
	by Creative Cause					MW: He loves the game, and for that I tip my cap. But his best showings were either bias-aided or pace-assisted.
	Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables & Monomoy Stables; Trainer: Keith Desormeaux; Jockey: Kent Desormeaux

11	Bolt d'Oro		8-1	10-1	103	JP: Was in unenviable chasing position in SA Derby behind Justify. Two good preps this spring, likely to be value.
	by Medaglia d'Oro					MW: Has been one of the best and fastest members of his generation from the get-go. Ignore him at your own risk.
	Owner: Ruis Racing; Trainer: Mick Ruis; Jockey: Victor Espinoza

12	Enticed		30-1	30-1	95	JP: Took solid bump from Vino Rosso, couldn't match strides late in Wood, but won CD's biggest 2yo race last fall.
	by Medaglia d'Oro					MW: This horse can run, but I still have some doubts he's at his best going long at this point in his young career.
	Owner: Godolphin Racing; Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin; Jockey: Junior Alvarado

13	Bravazo		50-1	50-1	93	JP: Was trying to lug out entire way in the Louisiana Derby. Hard to like off such a dreadful final prep six weeks ago.
	by Awesome Again					MW: He and Promises Fulfilled are in a contest for worst last-out performance. He's not winning that race, either.
	Owner: Calumet Farm; Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas; Jockey: Luis Contreras

14	Mendelssohn		5-1	6-1	106	JP: World-class trainer and jockey and a horse who romped in his only dirt start make for a potent team. Dangerous.
	by Scat Daddy					MW: Would be no surprise, but the setup for this is very different and less favorable than it was in his UAE Derby.
	Owner: Derrick Smith, Mrs. John Magnier, & Michael Tabor; Trainer: Aidan O'Brien; Jockey: Ryan Moore

15	Instilled Regard		50-1	50-1	92	JP: Santa Anita Derby pace didn't help him, but not sure he's progressed since Los Alamitos Futurity in December.
	by Arch					MW: His Beyers confirm that. He earned a 92 at Los Al, but a 92, 91, and a 90 since then suggest he's gone nowhere.
	Owner: OXO Equine; Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer; Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke

16	Magnum Moon		6-1	6-1	98	JP: Not crazy about the way he drifted through lane in last two, but crazy about his talent. One of the top contenders.
	by Malibu Moon					MW: He's still green, which makes what he's done all the more impressive. Imagine him when he figures it all out.
	Owner: Lawana & Robert Low; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Luis Saez

17	Solomini		30-1	30-1	93	JP: Strategy for him will be to drop back, hope for hot pace, make one run. Maybe that gets him bottom of gimmicks.
	by Curlin					MW: With recent Beyers of 92, 92, 93, and 93, several others would have to flop for him to get even a small piece.
	Owner: Zayat Stables, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, & Derrick Smith; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Flavien Prat

18	Vino Rosso		12-1	12-1	98	JP: Overcame slow start, wide trip to win Wood; thought race shape helped him. Extra points Johnny V. chose him.
	by Curlin					MW: Didn't run a step in Tampa two starts back, but if his light truly clicked on in the Wood, then he can get involved.
	Owner: Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez

19	Noble Indy		30-1	20-1	95	JP: Improved quite a bit last time out with blinkers; was close to strong pace, battled back courageously to win.
	by Take Charge Indy					MW: Bottom line is, he was hard-pressed to win a prep that wasn't considered strong over lesser regarded rivals.
	Owner: WinStar Farm & Repole Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Florent Geroux

20	Combatant		50-1	30-1	94	JP: Was compromised by slow pace, wide trip in Ark. Derby, but just doesn't finish off his races as one might hope.
	by Scat Daddy					MW: I take that as an indication that, at least at this point in time, he wants to go a shorter distance, not longer.
	Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds & Willis Horton; Trainer: Steve Asmussen; Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

Also Eligible:
21	Blended Citizen		50-1	50-1	88	JP: Didn't have cleanest of trips in Blue Grass, has improved with blinkers, but must move up a lot to make impact.
	by Proud Citizen					MW: Had trouble at Kee, yet was beaten less than five lengths. Another reason to question strength of Blue Grass.
	Owner: Greg Hall and SAYJAY Racing; Trainer: Doug O'Neill; Jockey: Kyle Frey