Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby: Los Alamitos Futurity analysis
Grade 2, $300,000 Los Alamitos Futurity, 1 1/16 miles, Los Alamitos, Dec. 11, 2021
(10 Derby qualifying points for first, 0 for second, 0 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Slow Down Andy, by Nyquist
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
Owner: Reddam Racing LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 85
SLOW DOWN ANDY cleared two hurdles – stretching out around two turns and facing open company – when gamely turning back heavily favored MESSIER to win the final major race of the year for 2-year-olds in Southern California.
Slow Down Andy was making only his third start, compared to Messier, who had one more race on his resume. Messier got past him at midstretch, but Slow Down Andy showed grit by battling back to prevail. The top two were well clear of the other three horses in the race, but the Beyer figure was moderate, so everyone here will need to step it up in coming months to be considered Derby material.
In this race, Slow Down Andy was rated as the field left the gate and was cleverly angled to the inside to save ground into the first turn after breaking from the outside post. After the long run down the backstretch, he was able to find a seam three to four paths wide, just inside of BAROSSA, to launch his rally on the far turn. He and Messier, who was just to in his inside coming into the lane, separated themselves from the others in upper stretch. Slow Down Andy at that point appeared to be going the best of the two, but he threw his head in the air at midstretch while lugging in, seemingly unfocused, and let Messier back into the game. But after surrendering the lead, he re-engaged, caught and then passed Messier, and was inching away at the end. He’s yet to wear blinkers, but off this race it looks like he’d benefit from them.
Messier, who finished second, went into the first turn in the three path, just behind and outside of OLYMPIC LEGEND and DURANTE. He was a bit keen turning up the backstretch and vied for the lead, then was angled to the middle of the track by Flavien Prat to try and get him to settle. He was going comfortably in the three path on the far turn while moving anew to the lead, poked his head in front of Durante but was immediately taken on by Slow Down Andy. He was being outrun in upper stretch when Slow Down Andy’s antics gave him a new opportunity, but he simply couldn’t stay with Slow Down Andy through the final sixteenth. He wore blinkers in his first two starts, did not in his third – when winning the Bob Hope – but added them again here. They made him a bit stronger than likely preferred early in the race, but he still should have finished better, especially considering the moderate fig this race produced.
Barossa, who was third, bobbled slightly leaving the gate, then was outrun to the first turn and wound up widest of all, at the rear of the pack, just outside of Slow Down Andy. He stayed in that spot down the backstretch and to the far turn, was beaten to a spot by Slow Down Andy early on the far turn and was forced to race four to five paths wide on the turn. He failed to stay with the top two in upper stretch, and wound up third because the other two horses behind him faltered worse than he did.
Both Messier and Barossa were not credited with any points towards the Derby. Both are currently trained by Bob Baffert, who is banned from participating in the race by Churchill Downs.
Durante, who was fourth, went into the first turn just outside Olympic Legend, rating kindly off that one’s hip, then got a bit aggressive turning into the backstretch when Messier pressed forward. He raced between Olympic Legend and Messier early on the far turn, led briefly midway on the turn, couldn’t keep pace in upper stretch while failing to change leads, and capitulated.
Olympic Legend, who was last of five, added front leg wraps for this race, his first since being gelded. He showed good speed from his inside draw, led to the far turn, was easily overtaken early on the far turn, quickly faded while failing to change leads, and was pretty much eased through the lane. He ran poorly in his lone previous turf sprint, which was his debut. But considering his pedigree – Street Boss out of a Mingun mare - shortening up and trying turf anew, against softer, might be worth a try during the Santa Anita meeting.