Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, Fair Grounds, Feb. 19, 2022 (50 Derby qualifying points for first, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth) Winner: Epicenter, by Not This Time Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Joel Rosario Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC Beyer Speed Figure: 98 EPICENTER, who deserved a better fate with a terrific performance in the Lecomte Stakes (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2022-kentucky-derby-lecomte-stakes-analysis), got a much more favorable pace scenario in this race. He took full advantage, leading from start to finish, seeing out nine furlongs with no problem, while earning a strong Beyer figure in beating two fellow top-shelf Kentucky Derby prospects in SMILE HAPPY and ZANDON. Epicenter has seen his Beyer figures improve in every start. He has a win at Churchill Downs. And he has the kind of contending speed that has been effective in the modern-day Derby (i.e., since qualifying became based on points rather than earnings). He has world-class connections in his rider and trainer. He’s legit. But so are the two who were closest at the end, both of whom were giving up experience – both recent and overall – to the winner. This should prove to be a significant race on the Derby trail. In this race, Epicenter, bobbled slightly and bumped with PIONEER OF MEDINA leaving the gate, but used his natural speed to take the lead without having to be asked while hugging the rail. He set moderate fractions (23.79 seconds for the quarter, :47.97 to the half) compared to the Lecomte (:23.40, :47.01) – the opening half nearly a full second slower. He gained separation from Pioneer of Medina and PAPPACAP three furlongs out while still going along under his own power, and widened in upper stretch with Rosario still sitting chilly. Rosario briefly shook the reins at Epicenter about a furlong out, but that was all the encouragement sought. Epicenter coasted the rest of the way home, with Rosario looking back repeatedly while acting as though he was out for a morning breeze, the result never in doubt. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2022: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Smile Happy, who finished second, raced toward the rear of the field in the two to three path around the first turn. He raced between rivals while in traffic heading to the far turn, and had a chance to get out midway on that turn, but Corey Lanerie, always cognizant of saving ground, waited for an opening to materialize. It finally did in upper stretch, and Smile Happy quickly accelerated, splitting runners at two different points. He finished up well, and though no threat to the winner, outran everyone else. Considering this was only his third start, his first since impressively winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2022-kentucky-derby-kentucky-jockey-club-stakes-analysis) nearly three months earlier, and that the pace was against him, this was an excellent start to his campaign. Zandon, who was third, leaped in the air at the start to be away last, taking him out of the stalking position he had in his two prior starts. He was a bit keen in the opening furlong, and went into the first turn at the back of the pack in the three path. He was only in front of one horse three furlongs out, was asked at that point to accelerate and did so, making an eye-catching move while three to four paths wide while passing Smile Happy a quarter-mile out. He kept to his task through the lane, but could not outfinish Smile Happy while just getting past Pioneer of Medina. As with Smile Happy, he had only two prior starts. He had not raced in more than two months, since a super try in the Remsen (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2022-kentucky-derby-remsen-stakes-analysis). This was a means to an end – Jose Ortiz was wise to not rush him and gut him after that unfortunate start. Factoring in his trip owing to his start, and the pace being against him, he, too, looks like a horse who will move forward significantly in coming months. Pioneer of Medina, who was fourth, was bumped by Epicenter leaving the gate, then took up a stalking position just behind and outside Epicenter around the first turn. He stayed in that spot to the far turn, could not keep up with Epicenter when the winner began to widen on him on the far turn, drifted out and then back in upper stretch while under energetic handling, and was outfinished in the closing yards by the second- and third-place finishers. This was his stakes debut after four prior starts, and while he turned in a good effort, the race shape was much more favorable to him than to Smile Happy and Zandon, and he had recent racing compared to them, so in terms of progression toward the Derby, the three who beat him seem far better prospects at the moment. TAWNY PORT, who was fifth, broke a step slow, then had to be checked in the opening yards, and wound up toward the rear of the pack, inside Smile Happy, around the first turn. He remained inside and had to wait in some traffic heading into the far turn, remained inside for much of that turn, was wheeled out four to five paths wide coming off the bend, and passed some weary foes while never getting close to the top four. Considering his only two prior races were victories at Turfway, the Jeff Ruby Steaks on April 2 seems like a good option. SLOW DOWN ANDY, who finished sixth, was wrangled back in the opening furlong despite the slow pace and, owing to that and his wide draw, wound up mid-pack and three paths wide around the first turn. He never could get over down the backstretch and went into the far turn in the four path, but never kicked on and went through the motions the rest of the way. It might not have mattered, but he’d have been far better off advancing early from that wide draw owing to the slow pace and taking up a stalking position. Instead, he lost more ground than just about anyone. :: Get Daily Racing Form Past Performances – the exclusive home of Beyer Speed Figures TRAFALGAR, who was seventh, broke half a step slow and trailed into the first turn, saving ground inside of Zandon. He remained well back throughout, was in the two path for much of the far turn before getting carried out by Tawny Port to about the six path coming off the bend, but never had anything to offer. Pappacap, who was eighth, was rated just enough in the opening yards to allow Epicenter to lead, then followed the eventual winner around the first turn while saving ground. He stayed in that gorgeous spot down the backstretch and around the far turn, raced inside of Pioneer of Medina on the far turn while chasing Epicenter, but began to tire rapidly before reaching the furlong pole and was ridden sympathetically late. He has wasted two straight glorious trips and continues the unproductive form of those exiting last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2022-kentucky-derby-breeders-cup-juvenile-analysis). BODOCK, who was ninth, pressed the pace outside Epicenter and Pioneer of Medina from the three path around the first turn. He was asked to hold his position while three paths wide entering the far turn, but failed to make any initial headway, was done before reaching the quarter pole, and steadily retreated. This was an ambitious spot for a horse with just two sprint tries on his resume. Plus, in the post parade he just looked like a blocky, sprint sort. Hopefully he goes back to a more sensible spot next time. RUSSIAN TANK, who finished last of 10, was forwardly placed in the opening strides but was squeezed back between rivals coming past the finish the first time. He raced mid-pack while in the two path around the first turn, followed Pioneer of Medina for much of the backstretch, saved ground on the far turn, but quickly retreated in upper stretch while overmatched, with rider Jose Vega continuing to strike him, unnecessarily, even after he had tailed off well behind his rivals.