Grade 2, $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs, March 6, 2021 (50 Derby qualifying points for first, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth) Winner: Helium, by Ironicus Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Jose Ferrer Owner: D J Stable LLC Beyer Speed Figure: 84 HELIUM was making his first start on dirt, first start around two turns, and first start in 4 1/2 months, so full credit to him for winning off the layoff to remain unbeaten, and to Casse for having him ready. But the low fig is an indictment of the entire field, which looked a cut below the division’s best going in. This race did nothing to cause one to pivot off that opinion. Helium paid big balloons, 15-1, and he popped the Derby hopes of several well-bet horses in this race, most notably favored CANDY MAN ROCKET, who had won the local prep, the Sam F. Davis, but was dreadful here, beating one horse. Helium has enough points off this race to make the Derby field, and Casse told DRF colleague Marty McGee after the race that that would be Helium’s next start, meaning he’d go into the Derby with one race in more than six months, that at 1 1/16 miles. He’ll have to find about 15 to 20 Beyer points in the next two months to be effective against the leaders of a crop of 3-year-olds that looks to be well above par. He still has plenty of upside, though, and as noted in the next graph, he was much the best considering the trip. In this race, Helium broke a bit slowly and then wound up caught four paths wide toward the rear of the field around the first turn. He steadily advanced down the backstretch to move into a striking position heading into the far turn, but was caught five paths wide. He continued his extended run around the turn and swooped past his rivals while dipping down to the two path entering the lane, faced a fresh challenge from HIDDEN STASH at midstretch, but turned him back and actually was coming away at the end. Considering the ground loss and extended run, this was a terrific effort. But I’ve learned over the years that when a big trip happens in a race with a low fig, the fig ends up being more significant. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2021: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Hidden Stash, who finished second, raced just inside Helium in the three path around the first turn, dropped back a bit on the backside, then picked it up three furlongs out, eventually being guided to the five path on the far turn while also making an extended rally, but not nearly as long as that of Helium. He got right up to Helium just inside the eighth pole, but lost ground the final sixteenth. MOONLITE STRIKE, who was third, had good speed leaving the gate and went around the first turn just behind and outside the leader, BOCA BOY. He had to be pushed along heading into the far turn, as a swarm of horses closed outside him, and at the midpoint of the turn he began to drop back while in slight traffic while being outrun. But he kept to his task to beat the rest while swapping over to his left lead late. He finished nearly 18 lengths behind Caddo River in the Smarty Jones, and was beaten 4 1/2 lengths here, which is a good representation of how this field stacks up against the likes of Caddo River et al. UNBRIDLED HONOR, who was fourth, was ridden aggressively in the initial strides, but has so little speed that he wound up in front of just one horse heading around the first turn while saving ground. He was near the rear of the field in the three path heading into the far turn, and closed with a decent run, but everything’s relative, as he was still beaten seven lengths in a low-rated race. KING OF DREAMS, who was fifth, saved ground right behind Boca Boy while third around the first turn. He got up inside Boca Boy midway down the backside, but had to ease back when he couldn’t get through. He was under an aggressive ride while saving ground on the far turn, had a sweet rail run the rest of the way, but couldn’t make any impact late. AWESOME GERRY, who was sixth, raced just behind the leaders between rivals in the three path around the first turn, was outrun heading to the far turn and dropped to the rear of the field, angled to the five path entering the lane, and passed tired rivals. SITTIN ON GO, who finished seventh, trailed into the first turn while in the three path, went into the far turn in the four path, then came around a couple tired rivals in midstretch while never in the hunt. If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result, then this horse’s recent campaign has been insane. It’s been clear for a while that he’s a one-run, one-turn horse, yet he continues to be force fed these two-turn races – like the Kentucky Jockey Club and the Holy Bull – and his form continues to decline. He was 2 for 2 around one turn to begin his career and hasn’t come close in now four subsequent two-turn races. He needs a reboot before he’s so sour it doesn’t matter. :: Bet horse racing on DRF Bets. Double Your First Deposit Up to $250. Join Now. Boca Boy, who was eighth, sped to the front and rolled along on the lead until midway on the far turn when passed by Helium, and steadily tired through the lane. MY LIBERTY, who was ninth, checked off heels early on the first turn, saved ground while keen passing the six-furlong pole, was checked three furlongs out while being outrun, got through inside the rest of the way, didn’t change leads until midway through the lane, but never was in the hunt. SUPER STRONG, who was 10th, had to take up a furlong into the race, saved ground while toward the back half of the field around the first turn, angled to the middle of the track and advanced heading into the far turn, but came under a ride three furlongs out and had nothing. Candy Man Rocket, who was 11th, broke half a step slow to lose tactical position, then was angled to about the four path while heading around the first turn while midpack. He was just inside Helium in the four path heading into and around the far turn, but came off the bridle a quarter-mile out and then stopped after bumping with Promise Keeper in upper stretch. PROMISE KEEPER, who finished last of 12, stumbled badly leaving the gate, then advanced to stalk the leaders about three to four paths wide around the first turn. He was third, in the three path, just inside Candy Man Rocket and Helium heading around the far turn, but was fading in upper stretch when Moonlite Strike shifted into his lane, causing him to check sharply and bump into Candy Man Rocket, after which he was pretty much eased.