Road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby: Smarty Jones Stakes analysis

Listed, $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes, one mile, Oaklawn, Jan. 22, 2021
(10 Derby qualifying points for first, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Caddo River, by Hard Spun
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Owner: Shortleaf Stable Inc.
Beyer Speed Figure: 92

CADDO RIVER indicated at age 2 that he was one to watch with three progressive performances, culminating with a maiden win at Churchill Downs going one mile. His debut at age 3 continued that pattern, and then some.

In his stakes debut, and first start around two turns, Caddo River annihilated his six rivals in this race. Granted, what was left in his wake wasn’t much; he’ll meet far better down the line. But he’s yet to take a step back, has a pedigree that gives him every right to handle added distance, and has top-notch connections. He gives Cox a terrific one-two punch along with Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Essential Quality.

:: KENTUCKY DERBY 2021: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more

In this race, Caddo River broke well from his outside post and used his natural speed to cross over and get to the rail before the first quarter-mile had been run. He loped along on the lead for the first half-mile with his ears twirling around like a radar dish – indicating he was going well within himself – and then began to open up on the far turn without being asked. Geroux gave him an aggressive hand ride with three-sixteenths to go and he was ridden out until deep stretch, when Geroux wrapped up on him. Anyone shipping in to Oaklawn this meet will face a formidable, locally based foe.

COWAN, who finished second, had to check off the heels of the erratic HARDLY SWAYED early on the first turn and lost some position. He was fifth of seven, racing in the two path, around the first turn, split horses down the backstretch to move into a contending position heading into the far turn, raced three paths wide on that turn, and finished well in front of everyone else while never coming close to the winner. He’s been smartly managed by a barn that is soberly realistic about their runners. I’m dubious he wants anything beyond a mile, and we know he’s a terrific turf sprinter, so there are options aplenty outside the major Derby preps.

BIG THORN, who was third, bobbled leaving the gate, and trailed into the first turn while in the three path before being guided to the rail while rounding that turn. He checked slightly early on the backstretch, gained ground to be within hailing distance heading into the far turn, but was outrun while three paths wide on that turn and was third because someone had to be; he was more than 17 lengths behind the winner. He’s far more comfortable in statebred sprints in Florida.

MOONLITE STRIKE, who was fourth, was bumped in his hindquarters early on the first turn when Cowan shifted out to avoid Hardly Swayed, then set up shop in a stalking position in third, three paths wide. He began to lose ground heading into the far turn, went into that turn in the four path, was ridden aggressively but without much response, and was out-finished for third. He’s a significant cut below these. He does have an intriguing pedigree for turf (Liam’s Map out of a War Chant mare), so perhaps that’ll be something to ponder in the future.

MARTINI BLU, who was fifth, bumped with LAWLESSNESS leaving the gate, then used his rail draw to save ground around the first turn while following Caddo River. He was ridden with urgency around the far turn to try and hold his position and got up to second at one point, but faded badly the final quarter-mile.

Hardly Swayed, who finished sixth, was rank heading into the first turn and shifted out, bothering Cowan and, in a domino effect, both Moonlite Strike and Lawlessness, too. He was second to Caddo River around the first turn, but was still hard to control, fighting with the rider. He settled down early on the backstretch, was on Caddo River’s hip midway through the race, but stopped badly three furlongs out and was basically eased through the final quarter-mile. Back to Mahoning Valley.

Lawlessness, who was last of seven, bumped with Martini Blu at the start, then checked off the heels of Cowan early on the first turn and shifted to the three path. He dropped to the rail early on the backstretch, had zero response three furlongs out, dropped well back, and, like Hardly Swayed, was basically eased through the lane.